Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2681 GP	H243 GP	H138 GP	Prev 3202 GP · 3y
TOI	21.83	21.66	19.74	21.23	23.01
PP TOI	2.53	2.74	2.53	2.98	2.73
G	14	11	11	11	15
A	36	33	36	30	46
PTS	50	45	48	41	60
PPP	18	21	19	24	17
SOG	173	181	178	185	165
PIM	59	55	40	71	67
Hits	36	27	32	22	74
Blocks	89	87	89	85	86

Sample: 81 GP · 1,427 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

31Noah Dobson57

32Thomas Chabot57

33Brock Faber55

34Vince Dunn54

35Seth Jones53

36Filip Hronek49

37Radko Gudas48

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 ran 76% above his 3-year rate last season (12.44 against 7.07).

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 57% below his 3-year rate last season (0.21 against 0.49).

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 41% above where it started (6.60 in the first half, 9.27 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 27% above last season, 11 to 14.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Darren RaddyshD · Toronto Maple Leafs89% match
shared: SOG, PPP, G, A
Victor HedmanD · Tampa Bay Lightning86% match
shared: PPP, SOG, G, A
Dougie HamiltonD · New Jersey Devils85% match
shared: SOG, PPP, G, A
Shayne GostisbehereD · Carolina Hurricanes85% match
shared: PPP, G, A, SOG

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Vince Dunn is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Braden SchneiderD · New York Rangerscovers 1
fills: Hits
Alexander RomanovD · New York Islanderscovers 1
fills: Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 1
fills: Hits
Alexander NikishinD · Carolina Hurricanescovers 1
fills: Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lane Lambert (SEA)

Last year: Lane Lambert full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	21.83	21.66	23.01	-6%
5v5 TOI	17.59	17.62	18.71	-6%
PP TOI	2.53	2.74	2.73	+0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 23 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 21.83: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.59: established top role held near 17.6 — the late dip (Q4 17.2) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage
PP TOI → 2.53: role tapered late (Q4 2.1 vs 2.7 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.09	5.09	5.08	+0%
G/60	0.39	0.38	0.39	-4%
iSH%	7.67	7.47	7.75	-4%
ixG/60	–	0.21	0.24	-11%
iCF/60	–	11.31	11.94	-5%
iSCF/60	–	2.73	3.37	-19%
iHDCF/60	–	0.38	0.48	-21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 23 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 7.5% sits near the 7.8% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.21 (22nd pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.18→0.23 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.23	9.78	10.77	-9%
IPP	38.15	35.48	41.41	-14%
1A/60	0.32	0.21	0.49	-57%
2A/60	0.40	0.29	0.51	-43%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 23 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.8%, IPP 35.5%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.53	2.74	2.73	+0%
PP iSH%	7.07	4.34	9.22	-53%
PP SOG/60	11.37	12.44	7.07	+76%
PP ixG/60	–	0.89	0.57	+57%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 23 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.5 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 0.89 vs 0.57) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.07	1.93	2.41	-20%
Hits/60	1.47	1.09	2.68	-59%
Blks/60	3.12	3.11	2.79	+11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 23 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 1.22/60 and 2nd-half 1.30 vs a 1.09 season rate (2.68 3-yr) (9th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.47/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 4.18/60 and 2nd-half 3.39 vs a 3.11 season rate (2.79 3-yr) (64th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.12/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.