Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H241 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3206 GP · 3y
TOI	24.65	25.01	24.30	22.75	23.03
PP TOI	1.72	1.94	2.16	1.71	1.96
G	8	8	8	8	8
A	40	41	37	45	40
PTS	48	49	45	53	48
PPP	14	21	24	18	14
SOG	137	137	154	120	141
PIM	47	33	42	24	45
Hits	130	133	129	137	117
Blocks	93	100	88	112	85

Sample: 82 GP · 1,582 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

33Brock Faber55

34Vince Dunn54

35Seth Jones53

36Filip Hronek49

37Radko Gudas48

38Bowen Byram43

39Jeremy Lauzon42

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Major regression candidate; regress toward multi-year norms (~40 pts). Luck reads stay as rate cuts (A/G); the Buium PP threat is bet on the minutes.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

RiskRegress points below 50; scoring outran repeatable generation. · Analytics research compilation

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 42 pace in the second half after 24 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 33% below last season, 21 to 14.

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 49% below his 3-year rate last season (2.16 against 4.19).

Second-half surge

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 28% above where it started (1.71 in the first half, 2.19 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Kris LetangD · Pittsburgh Penguins88% match
shared: Hits, PPP, A
Dmitry OrlovD · San Jose Sharks84% match
shared: Hits, PPP
Artyom LevshunovD · Chicago Blackhawks82% match
shared: PPP
K'Andre MillerD · Carolina Hurricanes81% match
shared: Hits, A

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Filip Hronek is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Brandon MontourD · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: SOG, PIM
Jakob ChychrunD · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: SOG, PIM
Dougie HamiltonD · New Jersey Devilscovers 2
fills: SOG, PIM
Vince DunnD · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Manny Malhotra (VAN) new voice

Last year: Adam Foote full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	24.65	25.01	23.03	+9%
5v5 TOI	19.31	19.30	17.97	+7%
PP TOI	1.72	1.94	1.96	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 24.65: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 19.31: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.72: prospect Zeev Buium threatens his PP role — a modest PP-minutes haircut rather than a blind PPP cut

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.76	3.71	4.25	-13%
G/60	0.11	0.08	0.18	-55%
iSH%	3.58	2.16	4.19	-49%
ixG/60	–	0.15	0.18	-19%
iCF/60	–	8.68	10.84	-20%
iSCF/60	–	1.67	2.59	-36%
iHDCF/60	–	0.11	0.29	-62%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskRegress Hronek's G/assists/PPP toward his multi-year norms. · Fantasy hockey defenseman analysis

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 2.2% sits near the 4.2% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.15 (13th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 13% (5v5 SOG/60 3.71 vs 4.25) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.23	8.11	11.05	-27%
IPP	37.99	38.46	37.41	+3%
1A/60	0.36	0.34	0.37	-9%
2A/60	0.49	0.38	0.59	-35%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.1%, IPP 38.5%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.72	1.94	1.96	-1%
PP iSH%	10.88	15.98	10.88	+47%
PP SOG/60	9.20	9.45	8.18	+16%
PP ixG/60	–	0.88	0.86	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskRegress Hronek's G/assists/PPP toward his multi-year norms. · Fantasy hockey defenseman analysis

RiskPP role projected down: 1.9→1.7 PP TOI/gp (prospect Zeev Buium threatens his PP role — a modest PP-minutes haircut rather than a blind PPP cut) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.52	1.18	1.65	-29%
Hits/60	3.92	3.98	3.97	+0%
Blks/60	2.67	2.92	2.79	+5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskRegress points off the lost PP role; keep the hits/blocks floor.

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 3.28/60 and 2nd-half 3.67 below the 3.98 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.92/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.97 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.87/60 and 2nd-half 2.40 below the 2.92 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.67/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.79 3-yr mark.