Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2664 GP	H237 GP	H127 GP	Prev 3227 GP · 3y
TOI	22.77	22.56	21.62	20.53	23.52
PP TOI	2.14	1.91	1.82	2.03	3.50
G	15	14	13	16	15
A	30	27	26	28	38
PTS	45	41	39	44	53
PPP	13	10	9	12	22
SOG	229	224	239	203	232
PIM	67	58	54	63	81
Hits	96	96	93	100	101
Blocks	95	100	101	99	89

Sample: 64 GP · 1,207 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

15Jakob Chychrun85

16Adam Fox83

17Jackson LaCombe79

18Brandon Montour77

19Miro Heiskanen75

20Dougie Hamilton75

21Lane Hutson74

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 81% above his 3-year rate last season (1.49 against 0.82).

Second-half surge

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 67% above where it started (11.99 in the first half, 20.04 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 45% below his 3-year rate last season (1.91 against 3.50).

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 46% below where it started (6.90 in the first half, 3.76 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Dougie HamiltonD · New Jersey Devils90% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, PIM
Jakob ChychrunD · Washington Capitals90% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP, PIM
Rasmus DahlinD · Buffalo Sabres83% match
shared: G, SOG, PIM, PPP
Darren RaddyshD · Toronto Maple Leafs83% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Brandon Montour is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Adam FoxD · New York Rangerscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Lane HutsonD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Jake SandersonD · Ottawa Senatorscovers 2
fills: A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lane Lambert (SEA)

Last year: Lane Lambert full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	22.77	22.56	23.52	-4%
5v5 TOI	18.91	18.87	18.07	+4%
PP TOI	2.14	1.91	3.50	-45%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 11 · 17 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 22.77: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 18.91: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.14: role tapered late (Q4 1.4 vs 1.9 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish; Cap PPP and points on the reduced PP share.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.17	6.36	6.62	-4%
G/60	0.34	0.30	0.40	-24%
iSH%	5.59	4.72	5.96	-21%
ixG/60	–	0.30	0.38	-20%
iCF/60	–	13.91	14.54	-4%
iSCF/60	–	3.23	4.33	-25%
iHDCF/60	–	0.40	1.14	-65%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 11 · 17 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 4.7% sits near the 6.0% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.30 (32nd pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.37 (1st half) to 0.27 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

RiskAge 32 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.49	6.96	8.48	-18%
IPP	43.50	49.72	38.55	+29%
1A/60	0.27	0.30	0.28	+7%
2A/60	0.32	0.30	0.37	-18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 11 · 17 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 49.7% vs 38.6% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.14	1.91	3.50	-45%
PP iSH%	6.68	6.05	7.18	-16%
PP SOG/60	14.95	16.21	9.44	+72%
PP ixG/60	–	1.49	0.82	+81%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 11 · 17 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskCap PPP and points on the reduced PP share.

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.9→2.1 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 1.4 vs 1.9 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish; Cap PPP and points on the reduced PP share.) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.49 vs 0.82) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.92	1.74	2.56	-32%
Hits/60	3.27	3.28	3.69	-11%
Blks/60	3.09	3.18	2.95	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 11 · 17 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.28/60 (42nd pct league-wide) → 3.27 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.18/60 (66th pct league-wide) → 3.09 projected.