Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2682 GP	H241 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3146 GP · 2y
TOI	25.00	24.25	23.19	22.21	20.88
PP TOI	3.13	3.23	2.97	3.50	1.37
G	▲14	10	8	12	9
A	▲49	48	60	36	25
PTS	▲63	58	68	48	34
PPP	▲21	17	22	12	6
SOG	148	156	138	174	106
PIM	29	19	22	16	29
Hits	76	74	80	68	67
Blocks	148	128	135	121	145

Sample: 82 GP · 1,459 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

14MacKenzie Weegar86

15Jakob Chychrun85

16Adam Fox83

17Jackson LaCombe79

18Brandon Montour77

19Miro Heiskanen75

20Dougie Hamilton75

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Ascending puck-mover in Anaheim's young core. PPP pinned to 21 (model 18, actual ~17): sole PP quarterback with no real competition for the top-unit minutes, so his 3.2 PP TOI should convert to a bigger PP-point share — one outside source projects exactly 21 PPP independently. TOI raised 24.3 -> 25.0 on the three-year growth trend plus the blue-line exodus. Counts deliberately hold at 62, between the two outside reads (61 and 63.1) — the role bet is in the minutes, not the points, since more ice time on a team that was 30th in xGA/60 is not the same as more production.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindRaise 5v5 floors for Anaheim's young core; minutes must be earned defensively. · Coaching landscape report

TailwindNudge up a top-pair line as his role grows in Anaheim. · Corey Sznajder (All Three Zones)

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 136% above his 3-year rate last season (3.23 against 1.37).

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 22 pace in the second half after 12 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 60 pace in the second half after 36 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 40% above last season, 10 to 14.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Thomas HarleyD · Dallas Stars90% match
shared: G, A, Blocks, PPP
Brock FaberD · Minnesota Wild86% match
shared: G, A, Blocks, PPP
Seth JonesD · Florida Panthers85% match
shared: G, A, PPP
Thomas ChabotD · Ottawa Senators84% match
shared: A, G, Blocks

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jackson LaCombe is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Brandon MontourD · Seattle Krakencovers 3
fills: SOG, PIM, Hits
Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Donovan SebrangoD · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Tyler TuckerD · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Joel Quenneville (ANA)

Last year: Joel Quenneville full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	25.00	24.25	20.88	+16%
5v5 TOI	18.45	17.80	16.03	+11%
PP TOI	3.13	3.23	1.37	+136%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 25.00: His all-strength TOI has climbed 19.38 -> 22.30 -> 24.25 across three seasons, and Anaheim then gutted the blue line (Trouba, Carlson, Gudas, Zellweger all gone, only Jensen added), leaving him the lone established NHL defenseman. The engine simply carries the 24.25 forward and cannot see the departures. An outside series projects 25:30-25:45; 25.0 sits under that.
5v5 TOI → 18.45: same coach (Joel Quenneville) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 18.6, Q4 19.0) over the full-year 17.8; Nudge up a top-pair line as his role grows in Anaheim.
PP TOI → 3.13: established top role held near 3.2 — the late dip (Q4 2.9) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.05	4.32	3.59	+20%
G/60	0.27	0.21	0.31	-31%
iSH%	6.70	4.86	8.53	-43%
ixG/60	–	0.32	0.26	+21%
iCF/60	–	9.49	7.49	+27%
iSCF/60	–	3.21	2.64	+22%
iHDCF/60	–	0.90	1.00	-10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 4.9% vs 8.5% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.32 (33rd pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 6.7%, lifting the goal rate ~27%.

TailwindShot volume up 20% (5v5 SOG/60 4.32 vs 3.59) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.49	8.67	7.84	+11%
IPP	44.46	43.91	46.42	-5%
1A/60	0.52	0.58	0.41	+42%
2A/60	0.33	0.41	0.26	+61%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.7%, IPP 43.9%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 9.49 vs 7.49) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.13	3.23	1.37	+136%
PP iSH%	7.39	8.58	6.46	+33%
PP SOG/60	7.93	7.93	9.31	-15%
PP ixG/60	–	0.92	0.57	+61%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.1 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 0.92 vs 0.57) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.94	0.70	1.23	-43%
Hits/60	2.59	2.63	2.54	+4%
Blks/60	4.22	3.95	4.89	-19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 2.63/60 (32nd pct league-wide) → 2.59 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.67/60 and 2nd-half 3.96 below the 3.95 season rate — projected DOWN to 4.22/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.89 3-yr mark.