Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2677 GP	H236 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3200 GP · 3y
TOI	25.42	25.47	23.43	24.19	25.07
PP TOI	3.42	3.48	3.51	3.45	3.36
G	9	10	7	12	10
A	▲56	57	59	56	52
PTS	▲65	67	65	69	62
PPP	26	30	32	28	25
SOG	165	158	153	162	195
PIM	35	32	41	25	32
Hits	29	22	30	15	50
Blocks	124	141	131	149	110

Sample: 77 GP · 1,327 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

16Adam Fox83

17Jackson LaCombe79

18Brandon Montour77

19Miro Heiskanen75

20Dougie Hamilton75

21Lane Hutson74

22John Carlson73

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Correcting a regression artifact, not making a bull case. The bet is that a 50-game injury season should not sit inside the 3-yr anchor at full weight; the system cap on Dallas defencemen is accepted and priced in, which is why this lands at 65 and not the high 60s. Independent of the outside source's number - the evidence here is internal. Revisit after the second outside read on DAL lands.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 7 pace in the second half after 12 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 41 pace in the second half after 25 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 62% below his 3-year rate last season (0.63 against 1.66).

Top of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 95th percentile league-wide (3.48).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

John CarlsonD · Tampa Bay Lightning89% match
shared: A, SOG, G, PPP
Jake SandersonD · Ottawa Senators88% match
shared: PPP, A, SOG, G
Josh MorrisseyD · Winnipeg Jets87% match
shared: A, PPP, SOG, G
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jackets86% match
shared: A, PPP, SOG, G

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Miro Heiskanen is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Nikita ZadorovD · Boston Bruinscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Glen Gulutzan (DAL)

Last year: Glen Gulutzan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	25.42	25.47	25.07	+2%
5v5 TOI	16.97	17.25	19.28	-11%
PP TOI	3.42	3.48	3.36	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 20 · 16

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 25.42: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 16.97: role tapered late (Q4 15.7 vs 17.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 3.42: holds last year's role; Trim Harley PPP toward a PP2 share; hold Heiskanen as the safe PP1 quarterback.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.47	4.47	5.24	-15%
G/60	0.18	0.14	0.23	-40%
iSH%	4.06	3.13	4.46	-30%
ixG/60	–	0.23	0.28	-17%
iCF/60	–	11.02	12.09	-9%
iSCF/60	–	2.76	3.80	-27%
iHDCF/60	–	0.41	0.61	-32%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 20 · 16

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 3.1% sits near the 4.5% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.23 (26th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 15% (5v5 SOG/60 4.47 vs 5.24) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.97	10.58	9.14	+16%
IPP	43.49	46.56	39.35	+18%
1A/60	0.44	0.50	0.39	+29%
2A/60	0.50	0.59	0.50	+19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 20 · 16

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 46.6% vs 39.3% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.42	3.48	3.36	+3%
PP iSH%	5.02	8.04	4.06	+98%
PP SOG/60	6.23	5.60	8.74	-36%
PP ixG/60	–	0.43	0.73	-41%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 20 · 16

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskTrim Harley PPP toward a PP2 share; hold Heiskanen as the safe PP1 quarterback. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey (Blake Cramer)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.4 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.36	1.08	1.12	-4%
Hits/60	0.85	0.63	1.66	-62%
Blks/60	4.06	4.47	3.46	+29%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 20 · 16

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 0.48/60 and 2nd-half 0.83 vs a 0.63 season rate (1.66 3-yr) (3rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 0.85/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindElite blocks volume (87th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (4.06/60 projected).