Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2667 GP	H227 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3236 GP · 3y
TOI	24.79	24.84	22.83	23.38	23.21
PP TOI	3.60	3.24	3.06	3.36	2.99
G	13	17	19	16	9
A	▲50	49	50	48	36
PTS	▲63	66	69	64	44
PPP	28	27	33	23	21
SOG	195	180	198	168	168
PIM	12	10	12	8	16
Hits	44	36	46	28	45
Blocks	165	156	156	157	154

Sample: 67 GP · 1,137 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

9Matthew Schaefer103

10Brandt Clarke94

11Darren Raddysh94

12Jake Sanderson93

13Mikhail Sergachev92

14MacKenzie Weegar86

15Jakob Chychrun85

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Value bump from Ottawa needing a new offensive engine; PP driver bet placed on the minutes (3.24 -> 3.6).

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 150% above his 3-year rate last season (8.84 against 3.54).

Second-half surge

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 finished the year 112% above where it started (1.08 in the first half, 2.29 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 33 pace in the second half after 23 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 24% below last season, 17 to 13.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Miro HeiskanenD · Dallas Stars88% match
shared: PPP, A, SOG, G
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanche87% match
shared: PPP, SOG, G, A
John CarlsonD · Tampa Bay Lightning86% match
shared: SOG, G, A, PPP
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jackets84% match
shared: PPP, SOG, G, A

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jake Sanderson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Donovan SebrangoD · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Travis Green (OTT)

Last year: Travis Green full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	24.79	24.84	23.21	+7%
5v5 TOI	17.37	16.98	16.04	+6%
PP TOI	3.60	3.24	2.99	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 5

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 24.79: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.37: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.60: primary PP driver in a thinner Ottawa offense with Tkachuk gone (3.24 -> ~3.6 PP TOI); PPP rises off the minutes

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.92	4.75	4.88	-3%
G/60	0.30	0.42	0.17	+143%
iSH%	6.19	8.84	3.54	+150%
ixG/60	–	0.24	0.20	+21%
iCF/60	–	13.14	11.30	+16%
iSCF/60	–	3.96	2.84	+40%
iHDCF/60	–	0.53	0.35	+52%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 5

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.24 (27th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.20 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.22→0.30 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.16	9.58	7.25	+32%
IPP	45.38	48.18	32.63	+48%
1A/60	0.41	0.53	0.25	+109%
2A/60	0.34	0.37	0.32	+16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 5

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 9.6% (3-yr 7.3%) AND IPP 48.2% (3-yr 32.6%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~5%.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 13.14 vs 11.30) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.53 vs 0.35) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.60	3.24	2.99	+8%
PP iSH%	9.44	10.62	8.52	+25%
PP SOG/60	13.01	12.99	9.95	+31%
PP ixG/60	–	1.32	0.72	+85%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 5

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindNudge up PPP/assists as the primary PP driver in a thinner OTT offense.

TailwindPP role projected up: 3.2→3.6 PP TOI/gp (primary PP driver in a thinner Ottawa offense with Tkachuk gone (3.24 -> ~3.6 PP TOI); PPP rises off the minutes) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.32 vs 0.72) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.39	0.42	0.62	-32%
Hits/60	1.30	1.06	1.66	-36%
Blks/60	4.31	4.17	4.52	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 5

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskBottom-of-league hits (8th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 4.17/60 (85th pct league-wide) → 4.31 projected.