Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2682 GP	H240 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	26.41	24.68	23.47	21.99	–
PP TOI	3.60	3.31	3.07	3.54	–
G	26	23	23	23	–
A	41	36	38	34	–
PTS	67	59	61	57	–
PPP	▲19	18	10	25	–
SOG	260	222	230	215	–
PIM	36	38	37	39	–
Hits	45	40	42	38	–
Blocks	120	111	102	120	–

Sample: 82 GP · 1,499 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

6Evan Bouchard112

7Roman Josi105

8Charlie McAvoy104

9Matthew Schaefer103

10Brandt Clarke94

11Darren Raddysh94

12Jake Sanderson93

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Elite breakout D (59 pts as a rookie). The dev curve + finish-anchoring now carry the ascension (raw engine ~72); this only adds the specific PP1-vacancy signal. Demidov's entry was removed for the same reason — his generic sophomore/PPP boosts double-counted the dev curve (raw engine ~76, in his 65-80 range).

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindSet an aggressive rookie-defenseman baseline (70+) with PP1 usage. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 91% above where it started (4.98 in the first half, 9.51 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 10 pace in the second half after 25 in the first, per 82 games.

Top of the league

TOI

TOI sits in the 99th percentile league-wide (24.68).

We project it up

SOG

all5v5

We’re projecting shots 17% above last season, 222 to 260.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Roman JosiD · Nashville Predators87% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP, A
Josh MorrisseyD · Winnipeg Jets87% match
shared: G, PPP, SOG, A
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilers86% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, A
Jakob ChychrunD · Washington Capitals84% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP, A

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Matthew Schaefer is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Brenden DillonD · New Jersey Devilscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter DeBoer (NYI)

Last year: Patrick Roy Q1-Q4 → Peter DeBoer final 4 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	26.41	24.68	n/a
5v5 TOI	20.40	18.29	n/a
PP TOI	3.60	3.31	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 26.41: one NHL season — role grown +7% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 20.40: same coach (Peter DeBoer) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 19.3, Q4 19.6) over the full-year 18.3; one NHL season — role grown +7% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 3.60: inherits PP1 after Dobson was traded to Montreal — an engine-invisible vacated role (3.31 -> ~3.6 PP TOI); the dev curve already carries the sophomore step

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	6.01	5.68	n/a
G/60	0.42	0.40	n/a
iSH%	7.04	7.04	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.32	n/a
iCF/60	–	13.53	n/a
iSCF/60	–	4.60	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	1.12	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindAge 18 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

TailwindAge 18 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +10% and role +7% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	9.57	9.57	n/a
IPP	41.43	41.43	n/a
1A/60	0.44	0.44	n/a
2A/60	0.32	0.32	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.6%, IPP 41.4%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	3.60	3.31	n/a
PP iSH%	17.81	17.81	n/a
PP SOG/60	7.75	9.94	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	0.85	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGive Schaefer PP1 PPP volume as a high-upside breakout defenseman.

ContextBoost Schaefer usage baseline; small ceiling trim for Horvat/Barzal. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindHold a high-end top-pair/PP1 defenseman line; ascending, not a fluke. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey (Blake Cramer)

TailwindPP role projected up: 3.3→3.6 PP TOI/gp (inherits PP1 after Dobson was traded to Montreal — an engine-invisible vacated role (3.31 -> ~3.6 PP TOI); the dev curve already carries the sophomore step) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	1.27	1.44	n/a
Hits/60	1.56	1.56	n/a
Blks/60	3.14	3.24	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 1.56/60 (17th pct league-wide) → 1.56 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.71/60 and 2nd-half 2.72 below the 3.24 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.14/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.