Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2668 GP	H239 GP	H129 GP	Prev 3202 GP · 3y
TOI	24.71	24.88	24.04	21.86	24.91
PP TOI	3.24	3.27	3.22	3.34	3.57
G	17	16	15	16	20
A	48	51	62	36	54
PTS	65	66	77	52	74
PPP	28	29	38	17	30
SOG	232	218	214	224	279
PIM	36	36	32	42	40
Hits	38	29	32	25	56
Blocks	131	122	110	137	151

Sample: 68 GP · 1,268 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

4Quinn Hughes117

5Rasmus Dahlin113

6Evan Bouchard112

7Roman Josi105

8Charlie McAvoy104

9Matthew Schaefer103

10Brandt Clarke94

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 38 pace in the second half after 17 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 62 pace in the second half after 36 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 47% below his 3-year rate last season (1.04 against 1.97).

Below his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 32% below his 3-year rate last season (0.81 against 1.19).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

John CarlsonD · Tampa Bay Lightning88% match
shared: A, SOG, G, PPP
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanche87% match
shared: SOG, PPP, G, A
Matthew SchaeferD · New York Islanders87% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP, A
Miro HeiskanenD · Dallas Stars86% match
shared: PPP, A, SOG, G

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Roman Josi is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Nikita ZadorovD · Boston Bruinscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Andrew Brunette (NSH)

Last year: Andrew Brunette full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	24.71	24.88	24.91	-0%
5v5 TOI	18.80	18.65	18.87	-1%
PP TOI	3.24	3.27	3.57	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 21 · 22 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 24.71: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 18.80: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.24: established top role held near 3.3 — the late dip (Q4 3.1) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.46	5.63	7.15	-21%
G/60	0.31	0.33	0.40	-16%
iSH%	5.63	5.86	5.53	+6%
ixG/60	–	0.29	0.37	-22%
iCF/60	–	12.73	16.07	-21%
iSCF/60	–	4.35	5.48	-21%
iHDCF/60	–	0.66	1.01	-34%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 21 · 22 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 5.9% sits near the 5.5% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.29 (31st pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 21% (5v5 SOG/60 5.63 vs 7.15) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.26→0.31 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 36 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.27	9.64	8.82	+9%
IPP	45.99	43.70	48.78	-10%
1A/60	0.51	0.47	0.63	-25%
2A/60	0.34	0.38	0.38	+1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 21 · 22 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.6%, IPP 43.7%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.24	3.27	3.57	-8%
PP iSH%	11.59	10.00	12.10	-17%
PP SOG/60	11.37	10.80	13.08	-17%
PP ixG/60	–	0.81	1.19	-32%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 21 · 22 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.2 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.17	1.14	1.37	-17%
Hits/60	1.34	1.04	1.97	-47%
Blks/60	3.89	3.69	4.83	-24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 21 · 22 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskBottom-of-league hits (7th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.79/60 and 2nd-half 3.08 below the 3.69 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.89/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.83 3-yr mark.