Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2677 GP	H241 GP	H136 GP	Prev 3232 GP · 3y
TOI	24.31	24.19	22.76	23.14	25.17
PP TOI	3.45	3.47	3.46	3.48	3.27
G	19	20	27	12	18
A	55	59	62	54	52
PTS	74	79	89	66	71
PPP	25	23	22	25	26
SOG	214	208	186	233	226
PIM	70	81	78	84	75
Hits	▼70	71	77	65	141
Blocks	▼90	84	70	101	131

Sample: 77 GP · 1,435 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

2Cale Makar134

3Zach Werenski126

4Quinn Hughes117

5Rasmus Dahlin113

6Evan Bouchard112

7Roman Josi105

8Charlie McAvoy104

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Hits cut kept (offensive role). Dropped the earlier A x0.90 'assists rode hot on-ice SH%' cut — his 1A/60 and iHDCF/60 are at career highs, so the process supports the assist level; the engine's (now process-aware) on-ice SH%/IPP regression handles what little luck remains. Peripherals revisited: HITS 0.60 -> 0.73 (the cut had gone below his own pace) and BLK trimmed to ~90 (both we and the outside read sat above his 84 actual).

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 27 pace in the second half after 12 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 50% below his 3-year rate last season (2.26 against 4.50).

Second-half surge

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 89 pace in the second half after 66 in the first, per 82 games.

Top of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 95th percentile league-wide (3.47).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Dougie HamiltonD · New Jersey Devils85% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, A
Brandon MontourD · Seattle Kraken83% match
shared: G, SOG, PIM, PPP
Darren RaddyshD · Toronto Maple Leafs83% match
shared: G, SOG, A, PPP
Vince DunnD · Seattle Kraken83% match
shared: SOG, PPP, G, A

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Rasmus Dahlin is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Braden SchneiderD · New York Rangerscovers 1
fills: Hits
Colton ParaykoD · St. Louis Bluescovers 1
fills: Hits
Alexander RomanovD · New York Islanderscovers 1
fills: Hits
Alexander NikishinD · Carolina Hurricanescovers 1
fills: Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lindy Ruff (BUF)

Last year: Lindy Ruff full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	24.31	24.19	25.17	-4%
5v5 TOI	18.59	18.65	19.38	-4%
PP TOI	3.45	3.47	3.27	+6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 19 · 24 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 24.31: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 18.59: established top role held near 18.6 — the late dip (Q4 17.6) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage
PP TOI → 3.45: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.35	5.47	5.92	-8%
G/60	0.36	0.42	0.35	+21%
iSH%	6.77	7.68	5.86	+31%
ixG/60	–	0.34	0.28	+19%
iCF/60	–	12.41	12.02	+3%
iSCF/60	–	4.14	3.90	+6%
iHDCF/60	–	1.17	0.82	+43%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 19 · 24 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.34 (34th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.28 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.43	10.79	8.76	+23%
IPP	55.61	57.67	46.21	+25%
1A/60	0.72	0.79	0.57	+38%
2A/60	0.54	0.67	0.41	+63%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 19 · 24 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 10.8% (3-yr 8.8%) AND IPP 57.7% (3-yr 46.2%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~6%.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 1.17 vs 0.82) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.67 vs 3-yr 0.41) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.45	3.47	3.27	+6%
PP iSH%	12.36	11.79	12.80	-8%
PP SOG/60	11.27	11.45	10.53	+9%
PP ixG/60	–	0.94	0.80	+17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 19 · 24 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextBaseline conditional on PP share; upside to 50-55 with PP1 time. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextPP role steady at ~3.5 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 0.94 vs 0.80) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.75	3.09	2.27	+36%
Hits/60	3.05	2.26	4.50	-50%
Blks/60	2.68	2.67	4.09	-35%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 19 · 24 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskLower the hits projection; draft for offensive floor, not 200 hits. · Fantasy deep-dive analysis

ContextHits role-stable at 2.26/60 (28th pct league-wide) → 3.05 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.40/60 and 2nd-half 2.08 below the 2.67 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.68/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.09 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.08/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.