Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2673 GP	H238 GP	H135 GP	Prev 3155 GP · 2y
TOI	21.88	22.69	22.70	19.94	18.26
PP TOI	3.76	3.75	3.92	3.56	1.23
G	15	25	21	29	6
A	53	54	60	48	31
PTS	68	79	81	77	37
PPP	26	29	32	26	8
SOG	200	238	282	190	111
PIM	49	70	93	44	19
Hits	68	75	75	76	60
Blocks	94	78	79	76	91

Sample: 73 GP · 1,228 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

8Charlie McAvoy104

9Matthew Schaefer103

10Brandt Clarke94

11Darren Raddysh94

12Jake Sanderson93

13Mikhail Sergachev92

14MacKenzie Weegar86

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 150% above his 3-year rate last season (3.75 against 1.23).

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 93 pace in the second half after 44 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 65% above his 3-year rate last season (0.64 against 0.39).

Second-half surge

SOG

all5v5

Shots ran at a 282 pace in the second half after 190 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Dougie HamiltonD · New Jersey Devils91% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP, A
Vince DunnD · Seattle Kraken89% match
shared: SOG, PPP, G, A
Victor HedmanD · Tampa Bay Lightning88% match
shared: A, PPP, SOG, G
Shayne GostisbehereD · Carolina Hurricanes87% match
shared: G, A, PPP, SOG

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Darren Raddysh is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Nikita ZadorovD · Boston Bruinscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice

Last year (TBL, traded): Jon Cooper full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	21.88	22.69	18.26	+24%
5v5 TOI	17.05	16.83	15.95	+6%
PP TOI	3.76	3.75	1.23	+205%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 21 · 21 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 21.88: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.05: new coach (Jim Hiller) — late-year 17.9 role discounted until the new staff sets usage
PP TOI → 3.76: curated PP1 role. Also supersedes a stray cross-tilt: claim_00027 (about Hedman reclaiming PP1 once Raddysh left) named Raddysh in entities and leaked a +9.3% PP boost onto him. Pinning the number makes the PP TOI intentional.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.96	6.84	4.34	+58%
G/60	0.38	0.44	0.19	+129%
iSH%	5.43	6.43	4.42	+45%
ixG/60	–	0.27	0.17	+60%
iCF/60	–	15.19	10.85	+40%
iSCF/60	–	3.13	2.72	+15%
iHDCF/60	–	0.54	0.29	+87%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 21 · 21 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindSet Raddysh ~55 pts with strong PPP; treat Rielly's PP value as downgraded. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindPositive finishing regression; restore near-elite ceiling with Raddysh gone to Toronto. · Fantasy deep-dive analysis

TailwindSupport a strong transportable shot/PP-outcome profile; higher PP goal upside than a typical team-switching defender. · Analytics research compilation

TailwindBoost toward a PP1-quarterback line with real goal/PPP upside in Toronto.

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.27 (31st pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.17 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 58% (5v5 SOG/60 6.84 vs 4.34) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.25→0.30 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.93	11.12	9.69	+15%
IPP	44.61	44.96	42.39	+6%
1A/60	0.56	0.64	0.39	+65%
2A/60	0.62	0.49	0.63	-22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 21 · 21 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 11.1%, IPP 45.0%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 15.19 vs 10.85) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.54 vs 0.29) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.76	3.75	1.23	+205%
PP iSH%	11.15	18.16	11.15	+63%
PP SOG/60	12.25	12.06	8.51	+42%
PP ixG/60	–	1.27	0.88	+44%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 21 · 21 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindSet a strong PPP baseline for a defenseman, but apply some regression off the Kucherov-aided Tampa environment.

TailwindWith Raddysh now in Toronto, restore Hedman toward a PP1 60-65 point baseline. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindSet Raddysh ~55 pts with strong PPP; treat Rielly's PP value as downgraded. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindSupport a strong transportable shot/PP-outcome profile; higher PP goal upside than a typical team-switching defender. · Analytics research compilation

TailwindBoost toward a PP1-quarterback line with real goal/PPP upside in Toronto.

ContextPP role steady at ~3.8 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.27 vs 0.88) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.49	2.74	0.80	+243%
Hits/60	2.69	2.98	2.62	+14%
Blks/60	3.04	2.69	3.81	-29%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 21 · 21 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.58/60 and 2nd-half 2.68 below the 2.98 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.69/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.62 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.98/60 and 2nd-half 2.49 below the 2.69 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.04/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.81 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.10/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.