Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2633 GP	H215 GP	H118 GP	Prev 3233 GP · 3y
TOI	19.20	18.87	15.48	21.06	23.87
PP TOI	1.30	2.27	1.11	3.80	3.03
G	8	3	6	0	13
A	38	40	24	63	54
PTS	46	42	30	63	67
PPP	10	15	0	33	25
SOG	132	124	136	125	188
PIM	34	25	16	27	52
Hits	51	47	57	41	70
Blocks	104	109	93	143	122

Sample: 33 GP · 449 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

60Mattias Samuelsson23

61Sean Durzi22

62Ben Chiarot22

63Victor Hedman21

64Oliver Ekman-Larsson21

65Colton Parayko20

66Maveric Lamoureux19

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): PP1 displacement by Carlson is the whole story; 5v5 role holds, so the bet is entirely on PP minutes (2.27 -> 1.3) instead of separate G/A/PPP cuts. Regress toward the mid-40s.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 130% above where it started (0.52 in the first half, 1.19 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 139% above where it started (10.54 in the first half, 25.22 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it down

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 33% below last season, 15 to 10.

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 49% below his 3-year rate last season (3.36 against 6.58).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Josh MorrisseyD · Winnipeg Jets90% match
shared: A, PPP, SOG, G
Mikhail SergachevD · Utah Mammoth90% match
shared: PPP, A, G, SOG
Darren RaddyshD · Toronto Maple Leafs88% match
shared: A, PPP, SOG, G
Shayne GostisbehereD · Carolina Hurricanes88% match
shared: PPP, A, G, SOG

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Victor Hedman is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Nikita ZadorovD · Boston Bruinscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jon Cooper (TBL)

Last year: Jon Cooper full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.20	18.87	23.87	-21%
5v5 TOI	13.76	13.63	17.59	-23%
PP TOI	1.30	2.27	3.03	-25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 3 · 10 · 5

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.20: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.76: role tapered late (Q4 12.6 vs 13.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 1.30: John Carlson's arrival pushes him off PP1 (2.27 -> ~1.3 PP TOI); the PP-point drop plus fewer PP goals and assists all cascade from the lost minutes

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.79	3.87	5.52	-30%
G/60	0.17	0.13	0.36	-64%
iSH%	5.62	3.36	6.58	-49%
ixG/60	–	0.16	0.29	-45%
iCF/60	–	11.61	12.98	-11%
iSCF/60	–	2.40	3.66	-34%
iHDCF/60	–	0.00	0.59	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 3 · 10 · 5

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 3.4% sits near the 6.6% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.16 (16th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 30% (5v5 SOG/60 3.87 vs 5.52) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.18 (1st half) to 0.14 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

RiskAge 35 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.27	10.71	9.57	+12%
IPP	45.87	45.39	46.63	-3%
1A/60	0.64	0.67	0.59	+14%
2A/60	0.44	0.53	0.44	+21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 3 · 10 · 5

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.7%, IPP 45.4%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.30	2.27	3.03	-25%
PP iSH%	4.63	0.00	8.26	-100%
PP SOG/60	13.31	13.64	9.26	+47%
PP ixG/60	–	1.24	0.92	+35%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 3 · 10 · 5

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindWith Raddysh now in Toronto, restore Hedman toward a PP1 60-65 point baseline. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindBoost Carlson PPP/PTS to a PP1 role; cut Hedman PPP toward a PP2/off-unit share. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

RiskPP role projected down: 2.3→1.3 PP TOI/gp (John Carlson's arrival pushes him off PP1 (2.27 -> ~1.3 PP TOI); the PP-point drop plus fewer PP goals and assists all cascade from the lost minutes) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 8.3%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.08	1.07	1.58	-32%
Hits/60	2.35	2.40	2.56	-6%
Blks/60	4.47	4.40	4.27	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 3 · 10 · 5

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 2.40/60 (30th pct league-wide) → 2.35 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 6.66/60 and 2nd-half 4.80 vs a 4.40 season rate (4.27 3-yr) (87th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 4.47/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.