Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2660 GP	H239 GP	H121 GP	Prev 3178 GP · 3y
TOI	19.56	19.26	18.25	19.56	21.18
PP TOI	1.34	1.31	1.01	1.88	2.47
G	8	7	8	6	10
A	27	30	25	39	31
PTS	35	37	33	44	41
PPP	7	5	4	9	16
SOG	112	112	96	148	134
PIM	57	68	59	78	61
Hits	56	55	58	40	58
Blocks	130	120	98	161	157

Sample: 60 GP · 1,018 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

58Shea Theodore25

59Kris Letang23

60Mattias Samuelsson23

61Sean Durzi22

62Ben Chiarot22

63Victor Hedman21

64Oliver Ekman-Larsson21

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 77% below where it started (15.11 in the first half, 3.48 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 finished the year 71% below where it started (0.96 in the first half, 0.28 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 44% above his 3-year rate last season (2.94 against 2.04).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Hampus LindholmD · Boston Bruins87% match
shared: PIM
Aaron EkbladD · Florida Panthers86% match
shared: PIM
Justin FaulkD · Detroit Red Wings84% match
Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers84% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Sean Durzi is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Erik KarlssonD · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Sullivan (NYR)

Last year (UTA, traded): André Tourigny full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.56	19.26	21.18	-9%
5v5 TOI	16.87	16.98	16.39	+4%
PP TOI	1.34	1.31	2.47	-47%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 19 · 21 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.56: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 16.87: established top role held near 17.0 — the late dip (Q4 15.3) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage
PP TOI → 1.34: role tapered late (Q4 0.8 vs 1.3 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.83	3.83	4.32	-11%
G/60	0.25	0.24	0.29	-17%
iSH%	6.47	6.27	6.66	-6%
ixG/60	–	0.22	0.21	+3%
iCF/60	–	12.07	10.80	+12%
iSCF/60	–	3.12	3.68	-15%
iHDCF/60	–	0.77	0.86	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 19 · 21 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 6.3% sits near the 6.7% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.22 (25th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 11% (5v5 SOG/60 3.83 vs 4.32) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.28 (1st half) to 0.20 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.99	9.03	8.87	+2%
IPP	47.17	51.38	35.78	+44%
1A/60	0.39	0.47	0.29	+65%
2A/60	0.41	0.59	0.35	+69%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 19 · 21 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 51.4% vs 35.8% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 12.07 vs 10.80) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.59 vs 3-yr 0.35) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.34	1.31	2.47	-47%
PP iSH%	5.00	0.00	8.93	-100%
PP SOG/60	7.16	9.93	7.63	+30%
PP ixG/60	–	0.66	0.64	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 19 · 21 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.3 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 8.9%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.55	2.94	2.04	+44%
Hits/60	2.44	2.30	2.34	-2%
Blks/60	4.83	4.89	5.63	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 19 · 21 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.26/60 and 2nd-half 2.57 vs a 2.30 season rate (2.34 3-yr) (28th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.44/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 3.48/60 and 2nd-half 3.94 below the 4.89 season rate — projected DOWN to 4.83/60, weighting the recent decline over the 5.63 3-yr mark.

TailwindStrong PIM rate (2.94/60 (81st pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.