Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H239 GP	H143 GP	Prev 3234 GP · 3y
TOI	20.68	20.84	19.90	20.10	20.55
PP TOI	0.13	0.11	0.14	0.09	0.23
G	5	5	2	8	5
A	10	10	11	9	13
PTS	15	15	14	17	18
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	103	102	115	90	114
PIM	64	75	73	76	62
Hits	149	170	163	176	153
Blocks	156	160	155	164	161

Sample: 82 GP · 1,484 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

59Kris Letang23

60Mattias Samuelsson23

61Sean Durzi22

62Ben Chiarot22

63Victor Hedman21

64Oliver Ekman-Larsson21

65Colton Parayko20

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 81% below where it started (8.64 in the first half, 1.64 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

SOG/60

SOG/60 finished the year 31% above where it started (3.35 in the first half, 4.41 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Top of the league

Blks/60

Blks/60 sits in the 95th percentile league-wide (5.37).

Top of the league

5v5 TOI

5v5 TOI sits in the 95th percentile league-wide (18.11).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Kaiden GuhleD · Montreal Canadiens92% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM
Connor MurphyD · Edmonton Oilers90% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits
Radko GudasD · Florida Panthers89% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks
Nick SeelerD · Philadelphia Flyers88% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Ben Chiarot is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Todd McLellan (DET)

Last year: Todd McLellan full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.68	20.84	20.55	+1%
5v5 TOI	17.80	18.11	17.53	+3%
PP TOI	0.13	0.11	0.23	-51%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.68: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.80: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.13: same coach (Todd McLellan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.1

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.80	3.88	4.11	-6%
G/60	0.17	0.20	0.16	+25%
iSH%	4.53	5.15	3.90	+32%
ixG/60	–	0.16	0.16	+1%
iCF/60	–	9.98	9.42	+6%
iSCF/60	–	2.26	2.32	-3%
iHDCF/60	–	0.40	0.31	+30%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 5.2% vs a 3.9% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.16 (16th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 4.5% pulls the goal rate ~14% down.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.14→0.18 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 35 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.12	7.74	8.95	-14%
IPP	28.49	28.22	29.09	-3%
1A/60	0.21	0.16	0.31	-48%
2A/60	0.17	0.20	0.21	-3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.7%, IPP 28.2%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.40 vs 0.31) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.13	0.11	0.23	-51%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	1.67	0.00	6.67	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.52	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Todd McLellan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.1) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.46	2.87	2.20	+31%
Hits/60	5.77	6.47	5.47	+18%
Blks/60	5.33	5.37	5.27	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 6.47/60 (72nd pct league-wide) → 5.77 projected.

TailwindElite blocks volume (95th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (5.33/60 projected).

TailwindStrong PIM rate (2.87/60 (80th pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.