Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2656 GP	H228 GP	H128 GP	Prev 3219 GP · 3y
TOI	16.26	16.18	15.57	16.33	18.93
PP TOI	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.05	0.08
G	3	3	3	3	3
A	13	16	10	22	16
PTS	16	19	13	25	19
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	86	92	81	104	107
PIM	116	98	170	26	110
Hits	229	240	205	275	300
Blocks	125	129	104	154	164

Sample: 56 GP · 799 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

34Vince Dunn54

35Seth Jones53

36Filip Hronek49

37Radko Gudas48

38Bowen Byram43

39Jeremy Lauzon42

40Sean Walker40

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 170 pace in the second half after 26 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 10 pace in the second half after 22 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Ben ChiarotD · Detroit Red Wings89% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks
Kaiden GuhleD · Montreal Canadiens89% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks
Connor CliftonD · Boston Bruins88% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks
Connor MurphyD · Edmonton Oilers86% match
shared: PIM, Blocks, Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Radko Gudas is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Paul Maurice (FLA)

Last year (ANA, traded): Joel Quenneville full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.26	16.18	18.93	-15%
5v5 TOI	13.56	14.28	15.71	-9%
PP TOI	0.04	0.04	0.08	-57%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 18 · 22 · 6

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.26: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.56: role tapered late (Q4 10.2 vs 14.3 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.04: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.31	4.50	4.43	+2%
G/60	0.14	0.15	0.14	+7%
iSH%	3.21	3.33	3.16	+5%
ixG/60	–	0.15	0.17	-10%
iCF/60	–	12.38	11.75	+5%
iSCF/60	–	1.95	2.42	-20%
iHDCF/60	–	0.45	0.26	+72%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 18 · 22 · 6

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 3.3% sits near the 3.2% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.15 (13th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskAge 36 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.31	8.26	8.44	-2%
IPP	36.79	37.50	34.62	+8%
1A/60	0.39	0.38	0.38	-1%
2A/60	0.31	0.38	0.33	+14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 18 · 22 · 6

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.3%, IPP 37.5%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.45 vs 0.26) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.04	0.04	0.08	-57%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	1.66	0.00	6.64	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	6.15	0.20	+2950%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 18 · 22 · 6

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.0 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	6.79	5.03	4.83	+4%
Hits/60	10.98	11.56	12.75	-9%
Blks/60	5.50	5.78	5.34	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 18 · 22 · 6

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 8.84/60 and 2nd-half 9.54 below the 11.56 season rate — projected DOWN to 10.98/60, weighting the recent decline over the 12.75 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 4.91/60 and 2nd-half 4.74 below the 5.78 season rate — projected DOWN to 5.50/60, weighting the recent decline over the 5.34 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.38/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.