Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2681 GP	H240 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3233 GP · 3y
TOI	20.87	21.81	20.12	21.22	17.06
PP TOI	0.55	0.76	0.20	1.31	0.46
G	8	9	8	10	6
A	▲20	22	32	13	14
PTS	▲28	32	40	23	20
PPP	1	1	0	2	1
SOG	167	178	172	184	137
PIM	59	60	80	40	46
Hits	147	143	162	124	101
Blocks	124	126	128	125	103

Sample: 81 GP · 1,456 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

37Radko Gudas48

38Bowen Byram43

39Jeremy Lauzon42

40Sean Walker40

41Charle-Edouard D'Astous39

42Simon Edvinsson38

43Josh Manson36

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): 25 -> ~27, siding with the lower outside read (27.3) over the higher (32.5). The high read needs offense that his power-play time cannot produce: PP TOI collapsed from 1.87 in Q1 to 0.77 / 0.15 / 0.26, so there is no PP engine here. Assists-only bump - the TOI growth and the Q4 rise are both assist-driven. Also carries real banger value beyond points (147 hits / 112 blocks).

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 32 pace in the second half after 13 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 80 pace in the second half after 40 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

TOI

TOI ran 28% above his 3-year rate last season (21.81 against 17.06).

Top of the league

5v5 TOI

5v5 TOI sits in the 95th percentile league-wide (17.98).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Gustav ForslingD · Florida Panthers85% match
shared: SOG
K'Andre MillerD · Carolina Hurricanes83% match
shared: Hits, G
Neal PionkD · Winnipeg Jets83% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Aaron EkbladD · Florida Panthers82% match
shared: PIM, Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Sean Walker is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rod Brind'Amour (CAR)

Last year: Rod Brind'Amour full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.87	21.81	17.06	+28%
5v5 TOI	17.30	17.98	14.81	+21%
PP TOI	0.55	0.76	0.46	+67%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.87: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.30: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.55: role tapered late (Q4 0.3 vs 0.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.63	6.63	5.88	+13%
G/60	0.30	0.29	0.28	+4%
iSH%	4.55	4.37	4.73	-8%
ixG/60	–	0.28	0.26	+7%
iCF/60	–	16.68	13.46	+24%
iSCF/60	–	4.61	3.81	+21%
iHDCF/60	–	0.54	0.59	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.28 (31st pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.26 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 13% (5v5 SOG/60 6.63 vs 5.88) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.32 (1st half) to 0.24 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.26	8.27	8.23	+0%
IPP	34.95	35.98	33.42	+8%
1A/60	0.28	0.25	0.33	-24%
2A/60	0.32	0.41	0.30	+38%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.3%, IPP 36.0%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 16.68 vs 13.46) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.41 vs 3-yr 0.30) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.55	0.76	0.46	+67%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP SOG/60	9.98	6.80	15.74	-57%
PP ixG/60	–	1.50	1.70	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.8→0.5 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.3 vs 0.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.12	2.02	2.26	-11%
Hits/60	5.01	4.61	4.17	+10%
Blks/60	4.18	4.04	4.39	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 6.41/60 and 2nd-half 5.53 vs a 4.61 season rate (4.17 3-yr) (56th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 5.01/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 4.04/60 (82nd pct league-wide) → 4.18 projected.