Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2651 GP	H215 GP	H136 GP	Prev 3233 GP · 3y
TOI	22.42	22.71	22.92	21.17	21.58
PP TOI	1.63	1.60	1.60	1.64	1.72
G	9	5	8	5	9
A	25	15	22	11	28
PTS	34	20	30	16	37
PPP	7	3	0	5	8
SOG	154	154	154	169	145
PIM	64	60	134	43	53
Hits	181	178	213	174	177
Blocks	121	121	110	116	118

Sample: 51 GP · 895 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

26Erik Karlsson63

27Shayne Gostisbehere62

28Rasmus Andersson61

29Neal Pionk60

30Nikita Zadorov59

31Noah Dobson57

32Thomas Chabot57

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 134 pace in the second half after 43 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 ran 146% above his 3-year rate last season (19.90 against 8.08).

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 22 pace in the second half after 11 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

PTS

all5v5

We’re projecting points 70% above last season, 20 to 34.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Kris LetangD · Pittsburgh Penguins85% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Aaron EkbladD · Florida Panthers84% match
shared: PIM, Hits
K'Andre MillerD · Carolina Hurricanes84% match
shared: Hits
Josh MansonD · Colorado Avalanche83% match
shared: Hits, PIM

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Neal Pionk is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Scott Arniel (WPG)

Last year: Scott Arniel full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	22.42	22.71	21.58	+5%
5v5 TOI	17.82	17.57	17.24	+2%
PP TOI	1.63	1.60	1.72	-7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 17 · 4 · 11

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 22.42: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.82: same coach (Scott Arniel) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 18.8, Q4 18.8) over the full-year 17.6
PP TOI → 1.63: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.42	4.42	5.00	-12%
G/60	0.18	0.13	0.22	-42%
iSH%	4.01	2.94	4.46	-34%
ixG/60	–	0.11	0.20	-45%
iCF/60	–	10.78	11.00	-2%
iSCF/60	–	2.08	2.09	-1%
iHDCF/60	–	0.00	0.32	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 17 · 4 · 11

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 2.9% sits near the 4.5% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.11 (5th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 12% (5v5 SOG/60 4.42 vs 5.00) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.12 (1st half) to 0.10 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.95	9.10	8.77	+4%
IPP	32.66	28.63	39.22	-27%
1A/60	0.30	0.20	0.35	-42%
2A/60	0.34	0.33	0.42	-21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 17 · 4 · 11

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 28.6% sits below the 39.2% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.63	1.60	1.72	-7%
PP iSH%	7.85	3.72	11.10	-67%
PP SOG/60	16.95	19.90	8.08	+146%
PP ixG/60	–	1.04	0.58	+79%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 17 · 4 · 11

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.6 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (3.7% vs 11.1%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.08	2.48	1.91	+30%
Hits/60	6.51	6.50	6.17	+5%
Blks/60	3.83	3.88	3.99	-3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 17 · 4 · 11

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 7.53/60 and 2nd-half 7.53 vs a 6.50 season rate (6.17 3-yr) (72nd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 6.51/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 3.19/60 and 2nd-half 3.19 below the 3.88 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.83/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.99 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.07/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.