Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2681 GP	H240 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3238 GP · 3y
TOI	23.34	23.20	21.59	22.30	23.97
PP TOI	1.86	1.99	1.30	2.66	2.44
G	13	17	16	18	11
A	29	30	24	37	30
PTS	42	48	40	55	41
PPP	11	13	8	18	13
SOG	169	179	157	201	166
PIM	56	72	68	76	46
Hits	37	37	34	41	44
Blocks	166	152	154	149	175

Sample: 81 GP · 1,433 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

25Jacob Trouba66

26Erik Karlsson63

27Shayne Gostisbehere62

28Rasmus Andersson61

29Neal Pionk60

30Nikita Zadorov59

31Noah Dobson57

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 114% above his 3-year rate last season (0.75 against 0.35).

Second-half fade

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 52% below where it started (2.69 in the first half, 1.29 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 8 pace in the second half after 18 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 24% below last season, 17 to 13.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jake WalmanD · Edmonton Oilers84% match
shared: Blocks, SOG, G
Brandt ClarkeD · Los Angeles Kings82% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, PPP, SOG
Mike MathesonD · Montreal Canadiens81% match
shared: Blocks, G
Jakob ChychrunD · Washington Capitals79% match
shared: G, SOG, PIM, PPP

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Rasmus Andersson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Filip HronekD · Vancouver Canuckscovers 3
fills: A, Hits, PPP
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Seth JonesD · Florida Pantherscovers 3
fills: PPP, Hits, A
Darren RaddyshD · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Craig (VGK) new voice

Last year (VGK, traded): Ryan Huska CGY · pre-trade → John Tortorella VGK · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	23.34	23.20	23.97	-3%
5v5 TOI	17.85	17.70	17.81	-1%
PP TOI	1.86	1.99	2.44	-19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 23.34: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.85: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.86: role tapered late (Q4 1.2 vs 2.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.57	5.65	4.83	+17%
G/60	0.36	0.38	0.30	+28%
iSH%	6.44	6.73	6.15	+9%
ixG/60	–	0.31	0.22	+41%
iCF/60	–	13.31	10.38	+28%
iSCF/60	–	3.72	2.80	+33%
iHDCF/60	–	0.80	0.65	+23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.31 (32nd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.22 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 17% (5v5 SOG/60 5.65 vs 4.83) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.27	9.57	7.86	+22%
IPP	46.44	48.51	37.03	+31%
1A/60	0.55	0.75	0.35	+114%
2A/60	0.24	0.17	0.29	-41%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 9.6% (3-yr 7.9%) AND IPP 48.5% (3-yr 37.0%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~4%.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 13.31 vs 10.38) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.80 vs 0.65) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.86	1.99	2.44	-19%
PP iSH%	11.67	20.72	4.55	+355%
PP SOG/60	11.02	10.81	9.10	+19%
PP ixG/60	–	1.42	0.70	+102%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.9 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.42 vs 0.70) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.72	2.05	1.25	+64%
Hits/60	1.31	1.34	1.44	-7%
Blks/60	5.20	5.15	5.27	-2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.92/60 and 2nd-half 1.15 below the 1.34 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.31/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.44 3-yr mark.

TailwindElite blocks volume (94th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (5.20/60 projected).