Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2681 GP	H240 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3228 GP · 3y
TOI	22.46	22.83	22.22	21.36	20.98
PP TOI	0.69	0.70	0.82	0.57	0.57
G	6	10	8	12	4
A	22	25	27	24	19
PTS	28	35	35	36	24
PPP	2	1	2	0	2
SOG	165	168	174	162	158
PIM	54	32	45	18	73
Hits	164	145	130	159	206
Blocks	192	152	156	149	201

Sample: 81 GP · 1,457 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

22John Carlson73

23Josh Morrissey71

24Darnell Nurse66

25Jacob Trouba66

26Erik Karlsson63

27Shayne Gostisbehere62

28Rasmus Andersson61

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 69% above last season, 32 to 54.

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 52% below where it started (7.62 in the first half, 3.62 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 40% below last season, 10 to 6.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 33% below his 3-year rate last season (5.19 against 7.78).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Darnell NurseD · San Jose Sharks83% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM, SOG
Adam LarssonD · Seattle Kraken83% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Kaiden GuhleD · Montreal Canadiens81% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM
Ben ChiarotD · Detroit Red Wings80% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jacob Trouba is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Warsofsky (SJS)

Last year (ANA, traded): Joel Quenneville full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	22.46	22.83	20.98	+9%
5v5 TOI	17.94	17.99	17.22	+4%
PP TOI	0.69	0.70	0.57	+22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 21 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 22.46: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.94: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.69: same coach (Ryan Warsofsky) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.8, Q4 0.6) over the full-year 0.7

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.55	5.72	6.01	-5%
G/60	0.24	0.33	0.12	+168%
iSH%	3.16	5.77	2.05	+182%
ixG/60	–	0.21	0.23	-9%
iCF/60	–	12.31	12.52	-2%
iSCF/60	–	2.55	3.15	-19%
iHDCF/60	–	0.58	0.55	+5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 21 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 5.8% vs a 2.0% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.21 (23rd pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 3.2% pulls the goal rate ~28% down.

RiskAge 32 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.24	8.04	8.57	-6%
IPP	36.12	43.32	29.14	+49%
1A/60	0.36	0.37	0.33	+11%
2A/60	0.25	0.37	0.26	+42%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 21 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 43.3% vs 29.1% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.37 vs 3-yr 0.26) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.69	0.70	0.57	+22%
PP iSH%	4.49	0.00	8.01	-100%
PP SOG/60	11.65	11.68	11.54	+1%
PP ixG/60	–	1.01	0.70	+45%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 21 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.7 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 8.0%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.60	1.19	2.57	-54%
Hits/60	5.91	5.19	7.78	-33%
Blks/60	5.82	5.06	6.97	-27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 21 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHold high HITS/BLK/PIM lines for Trouba and Nurse; do not project offensive growth. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextHits role-stable at 5.19/60 (62nd pct league-wide) → 5.91 projected.

TailwindElite blocks volume (93rd pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (5.82/60 projected).