Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2639 GP	H234 GP	H15 GP	Prev 3169 GP · 3y
TOI	19.55	19.46	18.55	19.05	20.87
PP TOI	0.06	0.04	0.05	0.02	0.30
G	7	4	3	16	8
A	18	19	19	16	20
PTS	25	23	22	33	28
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	93	84	79	115	104
PIM	64	86	82	115	63
Hits	153	181	167	275	148
Blocks	157	132	138	91	178

Sample: 39 GP · 658 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

47Aaron Ekblad32

48Alexander Romanov31

49Justin Faulk30

50Kaiden Guhle30

51Jake Walman30

52K'Andre Miller30

53Luke Hughes27

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 82% below where it started (14.23 in the first half, 2.62 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 78% above where it started (2.77 in the first half, 4.92 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 72% above his 3-year rate last season (3.74 against 2.18).

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 19% below his 3-year rate last season (0.36 against 0.44).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Ben ChiarotD · Detroit Red Wings92% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM
Jake McCabeD · Toronto Maple Leafs90% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM
Connor MurphyD · Edmonton Oilers89% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits
Radko GudasD · Florida Panthers89% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Kaiden Guhle is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Martin St. Louis (MTL)

Last year: Martin St. Louis full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.55	19.46	20.87	-7%
5v5 TOI	16.89	16.88	17.62	-4%
PP TOI	0.06	0.04	0.30	-85%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 5 · 0 · 17 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.55: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 16.89: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.06: reverts toward the 3-yr 0.3

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.65	3.65	3.89	-6%
G/60	0.22	0.18	0.28	-37%
iSH%	6.12	4.93	7.30	-32%
ixG/60	–	0.18	0.17	+5%
iCF/60	–	9.66	8.60	+12%
iSCF/60	–	2.37	2.38	-0%
iHDCF/60	–	0.36	0.36	-0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 5 · 0 · 17 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 4.9% vs 7.3% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.18 (19th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 6.1%, lifting the goal rate ~24%.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.03	8.65	9.59	-10%
IPP	45.63	49.75	42.13	+18%
1A/60	0.38	0.36	0.44	-19%
2A/60	0.32	0.46	0.28	+63%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 5 · 0 · 17 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 49.8% vs 42.1% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 9.66 vs 8.60) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.46 vs 3-yr 0.28) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.06	0.04	0.30	-85%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	1.17	0.00	5.87	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.30	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 5 · 0 · 17 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.1 PP TOI/gp (reverts toward the 3-yr 0.3) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.20	3.74	2.18	+72%
Hits/60	6.08	6.56	5.40	+21%
Blks/60	4.95	4.65	5.38	-14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 5 · 0 · 17 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 6.56/60 (73rd pct league-wide) → 6.08 projected.

TailwindElite blocks volume (90th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (4.95/60 projected).

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.09/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.