Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2668 GP	H227 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3153 GP · 2y
TOI	23.42	23.01	21.90	22.16	21.33
PP TOI	2.13	2.03	2.09	1.98	2.62
G	10	7	6	8	9
A	38	35	37	34	40
PTS	48	42	43	41	49
PPP	18	16	21	12	22
SOG	180	180	172	185	137
PIM	28	39	24	48	24
Hits	24	23	27	20	23
Blocks	67	63	55	68	62

Sample: 68 GP · 1,276 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

50Kaiden Guhle30

51Jake Walman30

52K'Andre Miller30

53Luke Hughes27

54Thomas Harley26

55Connor Clifton26

56Mike Matheson26

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindPositive finishing/points regression; raise defenseman baseline. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

RiskDo not over-project NJD skaters on reputation; temper Luke Hughes toward realized production. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey (Blake Cramer)

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 21 pace in the second half after 12 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 65% above where it started (8.22 in the first half, 13.58 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 74% above his 3-year rate last season (1.41 against 0.81).

Above his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 32% above his 3-year rate last season (5.45 against 4.11).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Shea TheodoreD · Vegas Golden Knights86% match
shared: A, PPP, SOG, G
Erik KarlssonD · Pittsburgh Penguins83% match
shared: PPP, A, SOG, G
Shayne GostisbehereD · Carolina Hurricanes83% match
shared: PPP, A, SOG, G
Tony DeAngeloD · New York Islanders81% match
shared: SOG, A

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Luke Hughes is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Nikita ZadorovD · Boston Bruinscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Sheldon Keefe (NJD)

Last year: Sheldon Keefe full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	23.42	23.01	21.33	+8%
5v5 TOI	19.23	18.77	17.34	+8%
PP TOI	2.13	2.03	2.62	-23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 13 · 14

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 23.42: holds last year's role; age 22 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 19.23: holds last year's role; age 22 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 2.13: reverts toward the 3-yr 2.6; age 22 riser — small growth bias

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.61	5.45	4.11	+32%
G/60	0.24	0.19	0.20	-6%
iSH%	4.20	3.49	4.92	-29%
ixG/60	–	0.31	0.21	+45%
iCF/60	–	14.10	11.50	+23%
iSCF/60	–	3.81	3.67	+4%
iHDCF/60	–	0.56	0.56	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 13 · 14

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 3.5% vs 4.9% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.31 (32nd pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 4.2%, lifting the goal rate ~24%.

TailwindShot volume up 32% (5v5 SOG/60 5.45 vs 4.11) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.36 (1st half) to 0.23 (2nd).

TailwindAge 22 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.36	7.47	7.20	+4%
IPP	42.20	41.20	43.67	-6%
1A/60	0.38	0.33	0.38	-14%
2A/60	0.35	0.38	0.34	+12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 13 · 14

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.5%, IPP 41.2%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 14.10 vs 11.50) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.13	2.03	2.62	-23%
PP iSH%	7.79	8.33	7.37	+13%
PP SOG/60	11.99	10.45	8.08	+29%
PP ixG/60	–	0.90	0.62	+44%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 13 · 14

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextKeep Hamilton PP1 for now; hold latent PP1 upside on Luke Hughes as an in-season buy.

ContextPP role steady at ~2.1 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 0.90 vs 0.62) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.07	1.41	0.81	+74%
Hits/60	0.90	0.89	0.86	+3%
Blks/60	2.04	1.97	2.31	-15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 13 · 14

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 0.87/60 and 2nd-half 1.10 vs a 0.89 season rate (0.86 3-yr) (5th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 0.90/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.74/60 and 2nd-half 1.67 below the 1.97 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.04/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.31 3-yr mark.