Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2650 GP	H235 GP	H115 GP	Prev 3230 GP · 3y
TOI	16.78	16.77	16.38	17.23	16.84
PP TOI	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.05
G	3	3	5	0	4
A	14	7	9	0	17
PTS	17	10	14	0	20
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	73	58	53	67	83
PIM	67	87	103	50	61
Hits	248	295	273	347	222
Blocks	126	138	130	155	120

Sample: 50 GP · 728 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

52K'Andre Miller30

53Luke Hughes27

54Thomas Harley26

55Connor Clifton26

56Mike Matheson26

57Logan Stanley25

58Shea Theodore25

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 103 pace in the second half after 50 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 60% below his 3-year rate last season (0.16 against 0.40).

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 57% above his 3-year rate last season (5.71 against 3.64).

Bottom of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 4th percentile league-wide (0.01).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knights91% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Brenden DillonD · New Jersey Devils91% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Radko GudasD · Florida Panthers88% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks
Ben ChiarotD · Detroit Red Wings86% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Connor Clifton is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Marco Sturm (BOS)

Last year (PIT, traded): Dan Muse full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.78	16.77	16.84	-0%
5v5 TOI	14.49	14.57	14.40	+1%
PP TOI	0.02	0.01	0.05	-75%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 8 · 17 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.78: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.49: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.02: same coach (Marco Sturm) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.80	2.80	3.91	-28%
G/60	0.12	0.16	0.14	+12%
iSH%	4.26	5.71	3.64	+57%
ixG/60	–	0.13	0.21	-38%
iCF/60	–	9.14	8.84	+3%
iSCF/60	–	2.39	2.34	+2%
iHDCF/60	–	0.41	0.62	-34%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 8 · 17 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 5.7% vs a 3.6% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.13 (8th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 4.3% pulls the goal rate ~25% down.

RiskShot volume down 28% (5v5 SOG/60 2.80 vs 3.91) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.11→0.15 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.03	10.29	9.71	+6%
IPP	25.02	19.22	34.48	-44%
1A/60	0.26	0.16	0.40	-60%
2A/60	0.29	0.16	0.36	-56%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 8 · 17 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 19.2% sits below the 34.5% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.02	0.01	0.05	-75%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 8 · 17 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Marco Sturm) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.55	4.04	2.73	+48%
Hits/60	11.73	13.02	9.84	+32%
Blks/60	5.18	5.44	4.80	+13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 8 · 17 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 10.50/60 and 2nd-half 12.19 below the 13.02 season rate — projected DOWN to 11.73/60, weighting the recent decline over the 9.84 3-yr mark.

TailwindElite blocks volume (96th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (5.18/60 projected).

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.41/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.