Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2676 GP	H236 GP	H140 GP	Prev 388 GP · 2y
TOI	16.49	16.70	17.15	16.15	15.07
PP TOI	0.63	0.44	1.63	0.05	0.03
G	4	10	3	15	2
A	17	18	26	14	13
PTS	21	28	29	29	15
PPP	2	1	4	0	0
SOG	91	104	129	92	73
PIM	120	138	105	168	106
Hits	110	119	101	135	124
Blocks	101	91	86	94	108

Sample: 76 GP · 1,128 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

54Thomas Harley26

55Connor Clifton26

56Mike Matheson26

57Logan Stanley25

58Shea Theodore25

59Kris Letang23

60Mattias Samuelsson23

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 26 pace in the second half after 14 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 3 pace in the second half after 15 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

PTS

all5v5

We’re projecting points 25% below last season, 28 to 21.

Above his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 28% above his 3-year rate last season (4.52 against 3.54).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Maveric LamoureuxD · Utah Mammoth92% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Tyler TuckerD · St. Louis Blues89% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Charle-Edouard D'AstousD · Tampa Bay Lightning87% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Donovan SebrangoD · Florida Panthers86% match
shared: PIM, Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Logan Stanley is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lindy Ruff (BUF)

Last year (WPG, traded): Lindy Ruff BUF · pre-trade → Scott Arniel WPG · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.49	16.70	15.07	+11%
5v5 TOI	14.15	14.85	13.67	+9%
PP TOI	0.63	0.44	0.03	+1207%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 19 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.49: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.15: role tapered late (Q4 12.9 vs 14.9 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.63: same coach (Lindy Ruff) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.6, Q4 1.6) over the full-year 0.4

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.56	4.52	3.54	+28%
G/60	0.31	0.43	0.10	+325%
iSH%	6.19	9.51	2.86	+233%
ixG/60	–	0.22	0.12	+91%
iCF/60	–	12.81	9.57	+34%
iSCF/60	–	3.30	1.94	+70%
iHDCF/60	–	0.43	0.20	+118%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 19 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.22 (25th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.12 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 28% (5v5 SOG/60 4.52 vs 3.54) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.20	9.49	7.91	+20%
IPP	44.13	45.29	38.82	+17%
1A/60	0.25	0.27	0.20	+35%
2A/60	0.47	0.32	0.50	-36%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 19 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 9.5% (3-yr 7.9%) AND IPP 45.3% (3-yr 38.8%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~3%.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 12.81 vs 9.57) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.43 vs 0.20) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.63	0.44	0.03	+1207%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP SOG/60	10.87	10.87	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.73	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 19 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.4→0.6 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Lindy Ruff) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.6, Q4 1.6) over the full-year 0.4) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	6.21	6.80	5.49	+24%
Hits/60	5.47	5.58	6.38	-13%
Blks/60	3.78	3.46	4.88	-29%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 19 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 3.83/60 and 2nd-half 4.68 below the 5.58 season rate — projected DOWN to 5.47/60, weighting the recent decline over the 6.38 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.19/60 and 2nd-half 3.17 below the 3.46 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.78/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.88 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.43/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.