Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2670 GP	H239 GP	H131 GP	Prev 3169 GP · 3y
TOI	22.57	22.84	20.91	21.52	21.84
PP TOI	1.74	1.38	1.11	1.72	2.72
G	9	12	12	12	10
A	43	34	31	38	58
PTS	52	46	43	50	68
PPP	10	6	2	11	21
SOG	151	151	125	184	179
PIM	35	28	42	10	24
Hits	3	2	2	3	15
Blocks	109	102	91	115	116

Sample: 70 GP · 1,281 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

55Connor Clifton26

56Mike Matheson26

57Logan Stanley25

58Shea Theodore25

59Kris Letang23

60Mattias Samuelsson23

61Sean Durzi22

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 67% above last season, 6 to 10.

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 49% below his 3-year rate last season (1.38 against 2.72).

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 51% above his 3-year rate last season (6.52 against 4.32).

Second-half fade

SOG

all5v5

Shots ran at a 125 pace in the second half after 184 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Luke HughesD · New Jersey Devils86% match
shared: A, PPP, SOG, G
Miro HeiskanenD · Dallas Stars85% match
shared: A, SOG, PPP, G
Josh MorrisseyD · Winnipeg Jets84% match
shared: A, SOG, PPP, G
Brock FaberD · Minnesota Wild83% match
shared: A, G, PPP, SOG

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Shea Theodore is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Nikita ZadorovD · Boston Bruinscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Craig (VGK) new voice

Last year: Bruce Cassidy Q1-Q4 · fired Mar 29 → John Tortorella final 8 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	22.57	22.84	21.84	+5%
5v5 TOI	18.27	18.31	18.00	+2%
PP TOI	1.74	1.38	2.72	-49%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 11 · 21 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 22.57: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 18.27: established top role held near 18.3 — the late dip (Q4 17.4) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage
PP TOI → 1.74: role tapered late (Q4 1.4 vs 1.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.98	5.06	5.58	-9%
G/60	0.25	0.33	0.24	+37%
iSH%	4.98	6.52	4.32	+51%
ixG/60	–	0.26	0.27	-4%
iCF/60	–	12.36	13.61	-9%
iSCF/60	–	3.04	3.67	-17%
iHDCF/60	–	0.51	0.42	+23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 11 · 21 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 6.5% vs a 4.3% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.26 (30th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 5.0% pulls the goal rate ~25% down.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.32 (1st half) to 0.23 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.04	8.78	9.53	-8%
IPP	50.24	48.16	54.14	-11%
1A/60	0.50	0.37	0.67	-45%
2A/60	0.61	0.61	0.65	-6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 11 · 21 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.8%, IPP 48.2%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.51 vs 0.42) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.74	1.38	2.72	-49%
PP iSH%	12.39	33.24	9.63	+245%
PP SOG/60	4.09	3.73	8.08	-54%
PP ixG/60	–	0.44	0.59	-26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 11 · 21 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.4→1.7 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 1.4 vs 1.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (33.2% vs 9.6% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 0.44) — point-shot D and pass-first QBs regress hardest.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.26	0.94	0.98	-5%
Hits/60	0.12	0.09	0.49	-82%
Blks/60	3.30	2.86	4.24	-33%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 11 · 21 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 0.19/60 and 2nd-half 0.10 vs a 0.09 season rate (0.49 3-yr) (0th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 0.12/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.49/60 and 2nd-half 2.44 below the 2.86 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.30/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.24 3-yr mark.