Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2677 GP	H237 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3239 GP · 3y
TOI	24.63	24.72	24.01	22.85	24.27
PP TOI	3.12	3.11	3.08	3.14	3.28
G	13	15	16	13	14
A	51	44	33	53	57
PTS	64	58	49	67	71
PPP	21	17	16	18	24
SOG	168	154	170	140	185
PIM	35	32	35	29	37
Hits	52	38	32	44	78
Blocks	116	126	109	141	108

Sample: 77 GP · 1,504 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

20Dougie Hamilton75

21Lane Hutson74

22John Carlson73

23Josh Morrissey71

24Darnell Nurse66

25Jacob Trouba66

26Erik Karlsson63

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 65% below where it started (0.88 in the first half, 0.31 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 52% above where it started (6.21 in the first half, 9.44 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 52% above his 3-year rate last season (10.60 against 6.96).

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 56% below his 3-year rate last season (1.16 against 2.66).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Victor HedmanD · Tampa Bay Lightning90% match
shared: A, PPP, SOG, G
John CarlsonD · Tampa Bay Lightning89% match
shared: A, G, SOG, PPP
Seth JonesD · Florida Panthers88% match
shared: PPP, SOG, G, A
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilers87% match
shared: A, G, PPP, SOG

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Josh Morrissey is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Nikita ZadorovD · Boston Bruinscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Scott Arniel (WPG)

Last year: Scott Arniel full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	24.63	24.72	24.27	+2%
5v5 TOI	19.79	19.54	19.43	+1%
PP TOI	3.12	3.11	3.28	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 17 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 24.63: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 19.79: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.12: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.15	4.15	5.37	-23%
G/60	0.33	0.44	0.37	+18%
iSH%	8.05	10.60	6.96	+52%
ixG/60	–	0.20	0.27	-26%
iCF/60	–	9.81	12.17	-19%
iSCF/60	–	3.03	3.39	-11%
iHDCF/60	–	0.36	0.53	-32%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 17 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 10.6% vs a 7.0% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.20 (22nd pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 8.1% pulls the goal rate ~24% down.

RiskShot volume down 23% (5v5 SOG/60 4.15 vs 5.37) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.15→0.24 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.18	11.55	9.19	+26%
IPP	47.57	45.48	50.28	-10%
1A/60	0.55	0.60	0.58	+3%
2A/60	0.43	0.32	0.49	-35%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 17 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.6% vs a 9.2% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.12	3.11	3.28	-5%
PP iSH%	7.83	6.44	8.27	-22%
PP SOG/60	7.64	7.77	6.50	+19%
PP ixG/60	–	0.61	0.70	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 17 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.07	0.96	1.31	-26%
Hits/60	1.56	1.16	2.66	-56%
Blks/60	3.58	3.91	3.51	+11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 17 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.04/60 and 2nd-half 0.87 below the 1.16 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.56/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.66 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.83/60 and 2nd-half 3.25 below the 3.91 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.58/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.51 3-yr mark.