Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2652 GP	H212 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3202 GP · 3y
TOI	23.99	23.70	22.58	22.38	24.85
PP TOI	3.15	3.56	2.48	3.88	3.01
G	10	11	8	12	12
A	32	40	44	38	30
PTS	42	51	52	50	42
PPP	18	25	20	27	16
SOG	158	139	74	158	194
PIM	30	29	20	31	35
Hits	90	74	56	80	114
Blocks	130	96	99	95	144

Sample: 52 GP · 861 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

32Thomas Chabot57

33Brock Faber55

34Vince Dunn54

35Seth Jones53

36Filip Hronek49

37Radko Gudas48

38Bowen Byram43

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

SOG

all5v5

Shots ran at a 74 pace in the second half after 158 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 36% below where it started (3.88 in the first half, 2.48 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 49% below his 3-year rate last season (2.05 against 4.03).

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 35% above last season, 96 to 130.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Josh MorrisseyD · Winnipeg Jets88% match
shared: PPP, SOG, G, A
Jackson LaCombeD · Anaheim Ducks85% match
shared: G, A, PPP
Thomas ChabotD · Ottawa Senators84% match
shared: SOG, A, G
Victor HedmanD · Tampa Bay Lightning84% match
shared: PPP, SOG, G, A

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Seth Jones is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Brandon MontourD · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: SOG, PIM
Jakob ChychrunD · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: SOG, PIM
Rasmus DahlinD · Buffalo Sabrescovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG
Dougie HamiltonD · New Jersey Devilscovers 2
fills: SOG, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Paul Maurice (FLA)

Last year: Paul Maurice full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	23.99	23.70	24.85	-5%
5v5 TOI	17.35	16.56	18.34	-10%
PP TOI	3.15	3.56	3.01	+18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 0 · 12

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 23.99: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.35: same coach (Paul Maurice) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 17.8, Q4 17.8) over the full-year 16.6
PP TOI → 3.15: role tapered late (Q4 2.5 vs 3.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.63	3.41	5.26	-35%
G/60	0.07	0.07	0.21	-67%
iSH%	3.44	2.05	4.03	-49%
ixG/60	–	0.17	0.22	-22%
iCF/60	–	8.57	11.20	-24%
iSCF/60	–	2.23	2.95	-24%
iHDCF/60	–	0.42	0.45	-7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 0 · 12

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 2.1% sits near the 4.0% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.17 (18th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 35% (5v5 SOG/60 3.41 vs 5.26) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.20 (1st half) to 0.06 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.54	9.80	7.63	+29%
IPP	36.10	35.27	37.19	-5%
1A/60	0.35	0.35	0.34	+4%
2A/60	0.33	0.49	0.26	+90%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 0 · 12

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 9.8% vs a 7.6% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.49 vs 3-yr 0.26) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.15	3.56	3.01	+18%
PP iSH%	10.76	16.12	8.69	+85%
PP SOG/60	9.30	10.05	11.35	-11%
PP ixG/60	–	1.03	0.93	+10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 0 · 12

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 3.6→3.2 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 2.5 vs 3.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.03 vs 0.93) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.90	0.98	1.16	-16%
Hits/60	2.88	2.79	4.03	-31%
Blks/60	3.60	3.07	4.39	-30%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 0 · 12

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.97/60 and 2nd-half 1.97 below the 2.79 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.88/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.03 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.07/60 (63rd pct league-wide) → 3.60 projected.