Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2682 GP	H242 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3197 GP · 3y
TOI	22.25	22.34	21.21	21.21	21.65
PP TOI	2.85	1.61	1.42	1.80	1.18
G	▲13	11	4	18	12
A	▲38	31	38	24	26
PTS	▲51	42	42	42	38
PPP	13	7	8	6	4
SOG	119	109	109	109	101
PIM	53	48	64	31	57
Hits	70	50	42	59	104
Blocks	107	93	84	102	111

Sample: 82 GP · 1,473 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

35Seth Jones53

36Filip Hronek49

37Radko Gudas48

38Bowen Byram43

39Jeremy Lauzon42

40Sean Walker40

41Charle-Edouard D'Astous39

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Baseline is his 2025-26 Buffalo season; breakout on Chicago's PP1 + top pair. PP1-QB minutes at 2.85 carry the promotion honestly; goals a notch above his career line (13% on 120 SOG was rich). Assist mult cut 1.15 -> 1.06 because the deploy bet already pays for the PP1 assists - the extra mult was inventing an even-strength step forward his four flat EV seasons (1.25/1.26/1.30/1.30 P60) do not support. Lands ~50, between the two outside reads.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 86% above last season, 7 to 13.

We project it up

PP TOI

We’re projecting PP TOI 78% above last season, 1.61 to 2.85.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 4 pace in the second half after 18 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 64 pace in the second half after 31 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

K'Andre MillerD · Carolina Hurricanes87% match
shared: A, G
Artyom LevshunovD · Chicago Blackhawks83% match
shared: PIM
Sean DurziD · New York Rangers83% match
shared: PIM
Carter YakemchukD · Ottawa Senators83% match
shared: PIM, G

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Bowen Byram is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 2
fills: PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 2
fills: SOG, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 2
fills: PPP, SOG
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 2
fills: PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jeff Blashill (CHI)

Last year (BUF, traded): Lindy Ruff full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	22.25	22.34	21.65	+3%
5v5 TOI	18.01	17.97	18.13	-1%
PP TOI	2.85	1.61	1.18	+37%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 22.25: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 18.01: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.85: PP1 QB on the new FA contract, hedged from a clean 3.0 - Levshunov (2.1) shares some QB touches, but not enough to knock him to 2.7; splits the difference.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.38	3.38	3.34	+1%
G/60	0.36	0.33	0.39	-15%
iSH%	10.68	9.76	11.60	-16%
ixG/60	–	0.28	0.23	+23%
iCF/60	–	7.57	7.95	-5%
iSCF/60	–	2.61	2.62	-0%
iHDCF/60	–	0.69	0.64	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindRaise breakout baseline conditional on Chicago PP1/top-pair deployment. · Analytics research compilation

TailwindBoost Byram G/PPP to a PP1-quarterback line in Chicago. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 9.8% vs 11.6% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.28 (31st pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 10.7%, lifting the goal rate ~9%.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.76	11.04	10.04	+10%
IPP	41.09	41.08	41.12	-0%
1A/60	0.45	0.49	0.37	+32%
2A/60	0.46	0.41	0.44	-6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 11.0%, IPP 41.1%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.85	1.61	1.18	+37%
PP iSH%	7.43	6.73	7.99	-16%
PP SOG/60	6.84	6.84	6.48	+6%
PP ixG/60	–	1.04	0.73	+43%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextBaseline conditional on PP share; upside to 50-55 with PP1 time. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindBoost Byram G/PPP to a PP1-quarterback line in Chicago. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.6→2.9 PP TOI/gp (PP1 QB on the new FA contract, hedged from a clean 3.0 - Levshunov (2.1) shares some QB touches, but not enough to knock him to 2.7; splits the difference.) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.04 vs 0.73) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.78	1.63	2.00	-18%
Hits/60	2.47	1.83	3.83	-52%
Blks/60	3.30	3.14	3.75	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 2.80/60 and 2nd-half 1.74 vs a 1.83 season rate (3.83 3-yr) (22nd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.47/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.61/60 and 2nd-half 2.73 below the 3.14 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.30/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.75 3-yr mark.