Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2680 GP	H238 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3204 GP · 3y
TOI	23.17	23.34	21.84	21.79	21.98
PP TOI	3.00	3.02	2.96	3.08	2.55
G	20	27	25	29	17
A	34	35	38	32	31
PTS	54	62	63	61	49
PPP	17	18	22	16	16
SOG	209	226	170	277	212
PIM	60	63	59	68	57
Hits	54	59	44	73	75
Blocks	121	117	133	102	125

Sample: 80 GP · 1,472 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

12Jake Sanderson93

13Mikhail Sergachev92

14MacKenzie Weegar86

15Jakob Chychrun85

16Adam Fox83

17Jackson LaCombe79

18Brandon Montour77

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 finished the year 60% below where it started (2.65 in the first half, 1.06 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 59% above his 3-year rate last season (10.39 against 6.52).

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 22 pace in the second half after 16 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 26% below last season, 27 to 20.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Brandon MontourD · Seattle Kraken90% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP, PIM
Dougie HamiltonD · New Jersey Devils86% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, A
Matthew SchaeferD · New York Islanders84% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP, A
Vince DunnD · Seattle Kraken84% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, PIM

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jakob Chychrun is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Filip HronekD · Vancouver Canuckscovers 3
fills: A, Hits, PPP
Adam FoxD · New York Rangerscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Seth JonesD · Florida Pantherscovers 3
fills: PPP, Hits, A
Charlie McAvoyD · Boston Bruinscovers 3
fills: A, Hits, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Spencer Carbery (WSH)

Last year: Spencer Carbery full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	23.17	23.34	21.98	+6%
5v5 TOI	18.23	18.40	18.02	+2%
PP TOI	3.00	3.02	2.55	+18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 20 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 23.17: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 18.23: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.00: established top role held near 3.0 — the late dip (Q4 2.5) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage; Cap Hutson PPP while blocked from PP1.; Project Hutson as a rostered WAS PP-contributing D but start him on PP2 (cap early PPP); flag upside if he takes the PP1 QB job.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.03	5.87	6.02	-3%
G/60	0.44	0.61	0.39	+55%
iSH%	8.46	10.39	6.52	+59%
ixG/60	–	0.36	0.27	+32%
iCF/60	–	15.12	14.71	+3%
iSCF/60	–	4.69	4.24	+11%
iHDCF/60	–	0.73	0.47	+55%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 20 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.36 (34th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.27 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.39 (1st half) to 0.31 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.42	11.86	9.40	+26%
IPP	45.21	45.86	41.04	+12%
1A/60	0.41	0.49	0.30	+65%
2A/60	0.41	0.45	0.44	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 20 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProject Hutson as a rostered WAS PP-contributing D but start him on PP2 (cap early PPP); flag upside if he takes the PP1 QB job.

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.9% vs a 9.4% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.73 vs 0.47) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.00	3.02	2.55	+18%
PP iSH%	13.57	14.31	13.00	+10%
PP SOG/60	11.88	13.91	14.19	-2%
PP ixG/60	–	1.92	1.53	+26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 20 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskCap Hutson PPP while blocked from PP1.

TailwindProject Hutson as a rostered WAS PP-contributing D but start him on PP2 (cap early PPP); flag upside if he takes the PP1 QB job.

ContextPP role steady at ~3.0 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.92 vs 1.53) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.91	2.08	1.70	+23%
Hits/60	2.14	2.32	2.73	-15%
Blks/60	4.22	3.99	4.56	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 20 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.50/60 and 2nd-half 1.69 below the 2.32 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.14/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.73 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.99/60 (81st pct league-wide) → 4.22 projected.