Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2657 GP	H232 GP	H125 GP	Prev 3199 GP · 3y
TOI	22.76	22.58	21.66	21.20	23.70
PP TOI	2.71	2.39	2.37	2.41	2.76
G	11	10	7	15	12
A	36	35	34	35	36
PTS	47	45	41	50	48
PPP	▼12	10	3	20	14
SOG	178	143	160	121	190
PIM	34	32	31	33	40
Hits	62	52	53	50	75
Blocks	148	160	159	160	145

Sample: 57 GP · 995 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

29Neal Pionk60

30Nikita Zadorov59

31Noah Dobson57

32Thomas Chabot57

33Brock Faber55

34Vince Dunn54

35Seth Jones53

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 3 pace in the second half after 20 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 116% above where it started (4.98 in the first half, 10.73 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 46% above his 3-year rate last season (0.54 against 0.37).

Below his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 28% below his 3-year rate last season (4.16 against 5.76).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Thomas HarleyD · Dallas Stars89% match
shared: Blocks, A, G, SOG
Noah DobsonD · Montreal Canadiens89% match
shared: SOG, Blocks, A, G
Justin FaulkD · Detroit Red Wings87% match
shared: SOG, Blocks, G
Brock FaberD · Minnesota Wild87% match
shared: Blocks, A, G, SOG

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Thomas Chabot is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Brandon MontourD · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Donovan SebrangoD · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Travis Green (OTT)

Last year: Travis Green full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	22.76	22.58	23.70	-5%
5v5 TOI	17.78	17.46	18.74	-7%
PP TOI	2.71	2.39	2.76	-14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 8 · 22 · 10

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 22.76: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.78: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.71: same coach (Travis Green) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.7, Q4 3.5) over the full-year 2.4

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.16	4.16	5.76	-28%
G/60	0.20	0.24	0.26	-7%
iSH%	4.87	5.77	4.48	+29%
ixG/60	–	0.19	0.26	-27%
iCF/60	–	11.52	13.19	-13%
iSCF/60	–	2.77	3.75	-26%
iHDCF/60	–	0.42	0.56	-25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 8 · 22 · 10

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 5.8% vs a 4.5% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.19 (20th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 4.9% pulls the goal rate ~16% down.

RiskShot volume down 28% (5v5 SOG/60 4.16 vs 5.76) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.23 (1st half) to 0.16 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.76	13.11	9.04	+45%
IPP	29.90	28.45	35.39	-20%
1A/60	0.51	0.54	0.37	+46%
2A/60	0.37	0.24	0.39	-38%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 8 · 22 · 10

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 13.1% vs a 9.0% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.71	2.39	2.76	-14%
PP iSH%	10.03	10.50	10.03	+5%
PP SOG/60	8.94	8.38	7.64	+10%
PP ixG/60	–	0.54	0.66	-18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 8 · 22 · 10

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 2.4→2.7 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Travis Green) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 2.7, Q4 3.5) over the full-year 2.4) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.31	1.33	1.29	+3%
Hits/60	2.17	1.93	2.70	-29%
Blks/60	5.00	5.19	4.72	+10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 8 · 22 · 10

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.35/60 and 2nd-half 1.83 below the 1.93 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.17/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.70 3-yr mark.

TailwindElite blocks volume (94th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (5.00/60 projected).