Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2680 GP	H239 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3228 GP · 3y
TOI	22.51	22.48	20.90	21.30	22.72
PP TOI	1.70	1.52	1.46	1.59	3.10
G	11	12	12	13	12
A	35	36	29	42	45
PTS	46	48	41	55	57
PPP	9	7	4	10	20
SOG	178	162	170	154	207
PIM	28	35	23	46	30
Hits	82	64	90	38	72
Blocks	159	193	188	197	145

Sample: 80 GP · 1,403 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

28Rasmus Andersson61

29Neal Pionk60

30Nikita Zadorov59

31Noah Dobson57

32Thomas Chabot57

33Brock Faber55

34Vince Dunn54

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

ContextKeep top Islanders secure; discount depth-scoring upside. · Coaching landscape report

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 90 pace in the second half after 38 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 4 pace in the second half after 10 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 51% below his 3-year rate last season (1.52 against 3.10).

We project it down

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 18% below last season, 193 to 159.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Thomas ChabotD · Ottawa Senators89% match
shared: SOG, Blocks, A, G
John CarlsonD · Tampa Bay Lightning87% match
shared: SOG, A, G, PPP
Seth JonesD · Florida Panthers83% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, A
Thomas HarleyD · Dallas Stars83% match
shared: G, Blocks, A, SOG

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Noah Dobson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Donovan SebrangoD · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Tyler TuckerD · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Martin St. Louis (MTL)

Last year: Martin St. Louis full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	22.51	22.48	22.72	-1%
5v5 TOI	17.39	17.54	17.63	-0%
PP TOI	1.70	1.52	3.10	-51%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 22.51: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.39: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.70: reverts toward the 3-yr 3.1

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.04	5.04	6.03	-16%
G/60	0.33	0.38	0.35	+10%
iSH%	6.63	7.54	5.72	+32%
ixG/60	–	0.24	0.22	+7%
iCF/60	–	11.50	14.55	-21%
iSCF/60	–	2.44	3.31	-26%
iHDCF/60	–	0.47	0.45	+5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.24 (28th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.22 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskShot volume down 16% (5v5 SOG/60 5.04 vs 6.03) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.20→0.28 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.80	11.17	8.74	+28%
IPP	48.74	50.17	46.80	+7%
1A/60	0.54	0.56	0.55	+1%
2A/60	0.43	0.56	0.39	+44%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.2% vs a 8.7% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.56 vs 3-yr 0.39) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.70	1.52	3.10	-51%
PP iSH%	6.45	7.73	5.45	+42%
PP SOG/60	12.90	12.81	10.88	+18%
PP ixG/60	–	1.07	0.88	+21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.5→1.7 PP TOI/gp (reverts toward the 3-yr 3.1) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.07 vs 0.88) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.91	1.20	1.04	+15%
Hits/60	3.05	2.31	2.69	-14%
Blks/60	5.71	6.11	5.12	+19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.92/60 and 2nd-half 3.49 vs a 2.31 season rate (2.69 3-yr) (29th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.05/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindElite blocks volume (99th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (5.71/60 projected).