Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2671 GP	H233 GP	H138 GP	Prev 3201 GP · 3y
TOI	23.07	23.16	22.50	21.25	24.48
PP TOI	3.00	2.74	2.74	2.73	3.34
G	11	16	13	19	10
A	▲55	53	59	48	44
PTS	▲66	69	72	67	54
PPP	17	16	20	13	19
SOG	182	178	179	177	190
PIM	28	37	45	31	30
Hits	41	30	30	30	65
Blocks	138	122	126	120	163

Sample: 71 GP · 1,190 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

19Miro Heiskanen75

20Dougie Hamilton75

21Lane Hutson74

22John Carlson73

23Josh Morrissey71

24Darnell Nurse66

25Jacob Trouba66

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Baseline line is his 2025-26 Washington season. TB PP1 with Kucherov is the value driver, bet on the minutes (2.74 -> 3.2); held modest vs the 70-pt ceiling given age 36.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 96% above his 3-year rate last season (6.19 against 3.17).

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 83% above his 3-year rate last season (0.76 against 0.42).

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 20 pace in the second half after 13 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 37% above last season, 30 to 41.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Josh MorrisseyD · Winnipeg Jets89% match
shared: A, G, SOG, PPP
Miro HeiskanenD · Dallas Stars89% match
shared: A, SOG, G, PPP
Roman JosiD · Nashville Predators88% match
shared: A, SOG, G, PPP
Noah DobsonD · Montreal Canadiens87% match
shared: SOG, A, G, PPP

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where John Carlson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Donovan SebrangoD · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jon Cooper (TBL)

Last year (WSH, traded): Joel Quenneville ANA · pre-trade → Spencer Carbery WSH · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	23.07	23.16	24.48	-5%
5v5 TOI	17.03	16.76	17.24	-3%
PP TOI	3.00	2.74	3.34	-18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 17 · 16

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 23.07: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.03: same coach (Jon Cooper) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 17.4, Q4 17.8) over the full-year 16.8
PP TOI → 3.00: PP1 quarterback on an elite finishing unit with Kucherov/Point (2.74 Washington -> ~3.0 PP TOI); the ~70-pt ceiling comes from the PP minutes, held modest for age 36

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.37	5.65	5.49	+3%
G/60	0.25	0.35	0.17	+102%
iSH%	4.68	6.19	3.17	+96%
ixG/60	–	0.33	0.26	+28%
iCF/60	–	13.51	13.33	+1%
iSCF/60	–	3.83	4.02	-5%
iHDCF/60	–	0.91	0.64	+41%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 17 · 16

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.33 (33rd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.26 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.40 (1st half) to 0.25 (2nd).

RiskAge 36 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.31	10.65	8.78	+21%
IPP	48.96	50.61	41.43	+22%
1A/60	0.66	0.76	0.42	+83%
2A/60	0.55	0.55	0.50	+10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 17 · 16

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 10.6% (3-yr 8.8%) AND IPP 50.6% (3-yr 41.4%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~3%.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.91 vs 0.64) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.00	2.74	3.34	-18%
PP iSH%	9.86	11.17	9.44	+18%
PP SOG/60	7.57	5.55	9.48	-41%
PP ixG/60	–	0.62	1.15	-46%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 17 · 16

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindBoost Carlson PPP/PTS to a PP1 role; cut Hedman PPP toward a PP2/off-unit share. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindPP role projected up: 2.7→3.0 PP TOI/gp (PP1 quarterback on an elite finishing unit with Kucherov/Point (2.74 Washington -> ~3.0 PP TOI); the ~70-pt ceiling comes from the PP minutes, held modest for age 36) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.13	1.41	0.86	+63%
Hits/60	1.43	1.06	2.30	-54%
Blks/60	4.24	3.83	4.85	-21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 17 · 16

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 1.26/60 and 2nd-half 1.15 vs a 1.06 season rate (2.30 3-yr) (8th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.43/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.83/60 (78th pct league-wide) → 4.24 projected.