Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H240 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3239 GP · 3y
TOI	21.30	20.98	20.64	20.22	22.60
PP TOI	0.35	0.24	0.15	0.33	1.00
G	7	7	2	12	9
A	22	17	19	15	28
PTS	29	24	21	26	37
PPP	1	0	0	0	3
SOG	173	164	161	167	196
PIM	75	104	62	145	74
Hits	168	137	164	112	163
Blocks	157	167	161	173	155

Sample: 82 GP · 1,532 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

21Lane Hutson74

22John Carlson73

23Josh Morrissey71

24Darnell Nurse66

25Jacob Trouba66

26Erik Karlsson63

27Shayne Gostisbehere62

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 83% below where it started (6.79 in the first half, 1.14 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 164 pace in the second half after 112 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 29% above last season, 17 to 22.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 33% below his 3-year rate last season (0.31 against 0.46).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

MacKenzie WeegarD · Utah Mammoth84% match
shared: Blocks, SOG, Hits, PIM
Jacob TroubaD · San Jose Sharks83% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM, SOG
Neal PionkD · Winnipeg Jets78% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Sean WalkerD · Carolina Hurricanes76% match
shared: SOG, PIM, Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Darnell Nurse is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 2
fills: A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Warsofsky (SJS)

Last year (EDM, traded): Kris Knoblauch full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	21.30	20.98	22.60	-7%
5v5 TOI	18.70	18.69	18.28	+2%
PP TOI	0.35	0.24	1.00	-76%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 21.30: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 18.70: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.35: role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.91	5.91	6.58	-10%
G/60	0.23	0.27	0.24	+14%
iSH%	3.90	4.57	3.61	+27%
ixG/60	–	0.24	0.27	-12%
iCF/60	–	12.80	14.16	-10%
iSCF/60	–	2.94	3.68	-20%
iHDCF/60	–	0.43	0.51	-15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 4.6% vs a 3.6% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.24 (28th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 3.9% pulls the goal rate ~15% down.

RiskShot volume down 10% (5v5 SOG/60 5.91 vs 6.58) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.11	7.86	8.41	-7%
IPP	39.14	38.14	40.37	-6%
1A/60	0.38	0.31	0.46	-33%
2A/60	0.31	0.23	0.39	-40%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.9%, IPP 38.1%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.35	0.24	1.00	-76%
PP iSH%	1.55	0.00	2.76	-100%
PP SOG/60	9.33	12.09	9.03	+34%
PP ixG/60	–	0.78	0.76	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.2→0.4 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.94	4.07	2.52	+61%
Hits/60	6.14	5.05	6.06	-17%
Blks/60	4.51	4.86	4.29	+13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHold high HITS/BLK/PIM lines for Trouba and Nurse; do not project offensive growth. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 7.99/60 and 2nd-half 6.20 vs a 5.05 season rate (6.06 3-yr) (60th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 6.14/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 3.19/60 and 2nd-half 4.44 below the 4.86 season rate — projected DOWN to 4.51/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.29 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.16/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.