Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2650 GP	H224 GP	H126 GP	Prev 338 GP · 1y
TOI	15.94	15.67	15.33	15.41	14.89
PP TOI	0.04	0.03	0.04	0.03	0.05
G	8	7	10	3	9
A	10	7	7	6	11
PTS	18	13	17	10	19
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	72	44	63	27	84
PIM	82	61	51	69	89
Hits	▼260	228	184	269	335
Blocks	57	69	60	78	50

Sample: 50 GP · 720 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

72Braden Schneider15

73Rasmus Ristolainen14

74Adam Larsson14

75Lian Bichsel14

76Brenden Dillon13

77Travis Sanheim12

78Hampus Lindholm12

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Category-defining number in a banger league, which is why it is worth trimming even though the total points barely move. Hits deliberately NOT cut to his 228 pace - he is a real hitter and the role is growing; this only removes the part built on the 38-GP sample.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 91% above where it started (12.50 in the first half, 23.90 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 49% below his 3-year rate last season (2.17 against 4.22).

Second-half fade

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 184 pace in the second half after 269 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 34% above last season, 61 to 82.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadiens91% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Tyler TuckerD · St. Louis Blues90% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Donovan SebrangoD · Florida Panthers88% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Brenden DillonD · New Jersey Devils86% match
shared: Hits, PIM

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Lian Bichsel is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Glen Gulutzan (DAL)

Last year: Glen Gulutzan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.94	15.67	14.89	+5%
5v5 TOI	14.64	14.41	14.20	+1%
PP TOI	0.04	0.03	0.05	-38%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 5 · 6 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.94: holds last year's role; age 22 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 14.64: holds last year's role; age 22 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 0.04: same coach (Glen Gulutzan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0; age 22 riser — small growth bias

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.45	2.17	4.22	-49%
G/60	0.29	0.33	0.44	-25%
iSH%	11.86	15.21	10.43	+46%
ixG/60	–	0.11	0.16	-31%
iCF/60	–	7.25	10.89	-33%
iSCF/60	–	1.83	1.78	+3%
iHDCF/60	–	0.25	0.11	+127%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 5 · 6 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 15.2% vs a 10.4% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.11 (3rd pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 11.9% pulls the goal rate ~12% down.

RiskShot volume down 49% (5v5 SOG/60 2.17 vs 4.22) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.10→0.12 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

TailwindAge 22 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.86	10.72	11.30	-5%
IPP	30.97	29.78	34.60	-14%
1A/60	0.19	0.17	0.22	-23%
2A/60	0.27	0.17	0.33	-48%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 5 · 6 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.7%, IPP 29.8%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.25 vs 0.11) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.04	0.03	0.05	-38%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	2.90	0.00	29.03	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	1.43	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 5 · 6 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Glen Gulutzan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0; age 22 riser — small growth bias) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.42	3.08	4.34	-29%
Hits/60	12.53	10.91	16.45	-34%
Blks/60	2.75	3.08	2.33	+32%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 5 · 6 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 7.99/60 and 2nd-half 9.50 below the 10.91 season rate — projected DOWN to 12.53/60, weighting the recent decline over the 16.45 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.74/60 and 2nd-half 2.47 below the 3.08 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.75/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.33 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.08/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.