Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H243 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3245 GP · 3y
TOI	21.62	21.37	20.43	21.10	22.59
PP TOI	0.09	0.08	0.10	0.07	0.17
G	6	7	10	4	6
A	19	18	23	13	20
PTS	25	25	32	17	26
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	113	106	125	85	129
PIM	40	42	36	48	45
Hits	119	110	99	122	163
Blocks	148	163	148	179	152

Sample: 82 GP · 1,486 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

71Artyom Levshunov16

72Braden Schneider15

73Rasmus Ristolainen14

74Adam Larsson14

75Lian Bichsel14

76Brenden Dillon13

77Travis Sanheim12

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 23 pace in the second half after 13 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 70% above his 3-year rate last season (6.86 against 4.04).

Second-half surge

SOG/60

SOG/60 finished the year 58% above where it started (3.18 in the first half, 5.03 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

Blks/60

Blks/60 ran 28% above his 3-year rate last season (5.37 against 4.20).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Brayden McNabbD · Vegas Golden Knights88% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Mattias SamuelssonD · Buffalo Sabres88% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Martin FehervaryD · Washington Capitals87% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Nick SeelerD · Philadelphia Flyers87% match
shared: Blocks, Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Adam Larsson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lane Lambert (SEA)

Last year: Lane Lambert full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	21.62	21.37	22.59	-5%
5v5 TOI	18.13	18.12	18.71	-3%
PP TOI	0.09	0.08	0.17	-50%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 23 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 21.62: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 18.13: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.09: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.11	4.08	4.56	-10%
G/60	0.20	0.28	0.18	+52%
iSH%	4.89	6.86	4.04	+70%
ixG/60	–	0.14	0.20	-31%
iCF/60	–	8.56	10.57	-19%
iSCF/60	–	2.22	2.72	-18%
iHDCF/60	–	0.12	0.47	-74%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 23 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 6.9% vs a 4.0% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.14 (11th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 4.9% pulls the goal rate ~28% down.

RiskShot volume down 10% (5v5 SOG/60 4.08 vs 4.56) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.08→0.20 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.20	8.88	9.84	-10%
IPP	39.31	46.33	30.33	+53%
1A/60	0.36	0.40	0.32	+27%
2A/60	0.35	0.32	0.36	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 23 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 46.3% vs 30.3% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.09	0.08	0.17	-50%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	0.73	0.00	2.94	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.38	0.18	+108%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 23 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.52	1.61	1.58	+2%
Hits/60	4.63	4.28	5.76	-26%
Blks/60	4.87	5.37	4.20	+28%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 23 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 4.28/60 (53rd pct league-wide) → 4.63 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 4.34/60 and 2nd-half 4.83 below the 5.37 season rate — projected DOWN to 4.87/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.20 3-yr mark.