Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2678 GP	H240 GP	H138 GP	Prev 3158 GP · 3y
TOI	22.55	22.83	21.85	21.65	20.61
PP TOI	0.05	0.06	0.05	0.06	0.07
G	6	14	13	14	4
A	▲26	29	28	31	12
PTS	▲32	43	41	45	16
PPP	0	0	0	0	1
SOG	97	115	104	126	89
PIM	36	29	37	21	35
Hits	161	139	152	125	164
Blocks	149	162	164	159	132

Sample: 78 GP · 1,463 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

57Logan Stanley25

58Shea Theodore25

59Kris Letang23

60Mattias Samuelsson23

61Sean Durzi22

62Ben Chiarot22

63Victor Hedman21

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Engine reverted his 2025-26 offensive breakout (p60 0.70 career -> 1.38, ~43-pt pace) hard toward his defensive-D norm (-> 26 pts). Partial hedge up to ~32; still well under the 43 pace since a stay-at-home D rarely sustains that.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 150% above his 3-year rate last season (10.20 against 3.86).

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 57% below last season, 14 to 6.

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 37 pace in the second half after 21 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

PTS

all5v5

We’re projecting points 26% below last season, 43 to 32.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Martin FehervaryD · Washington Capitals90% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Adam LarssonD · Seattle Kraken88% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Braden SchneiderD · New York Rangers87% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Alexander RomanovD · New York Islanders85% match
shared: Hits, Blocks

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Mattias Samuelsson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lindy Ruff (BUF)

Last year: Lindy Ruff full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	22.55	22.83	20.61	+11%
5v5 TOI	18.64	18.77	17.14	+9%
PP TOI	0.05	0.06	0.07	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 20 · 24 · 16

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 22.55: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 18.64: established top role held near 18.8 — the late dip (Q4 17.6) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage
PP TOI → 0.05: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.95	4.02	3.47	+16%
G/60	0.30	0.41	0.13	+206%
iSH%	7.03	10.20	3.86	+164%
ixG/60	–	0.20	0.12	+66%
iCF/60	–	9.26	6.98	+33%
iSCF/60	–	2.91	1.42	+105%
iHDCF/60	–	0.49	0.22	+123%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 20 · 24 · 16

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextCut G/PTS toward the low-30s; hold the strong HITS/BLK floor. · Fantasy hockey defenseman analysis

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.20 (20th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.12 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 16% (5v5 SOG/60 4.02 vs 3.47) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.57	12.00	9.58	+25%
IPP	34.89	37.80	21.65	+75%
1A/60	0.29	0.33	0.20	+65%
2A/60	0.35	0.53	0.26	+102%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 20 · 24 · 16

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 12.0% (3-yr 9.6%) AND IPP 37.8% (3-yr 21.7%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~9%.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 9.26 vs 6.98) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.49 vs 0.22) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.53 vs 3-yr 0.26) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.05	0.06	0.07	-12%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.15	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 20 · 24 · 16

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.19	0.98	1.29	-24%
Hits/60	4.54	3.81	5.63	-32%
Blks/60	4.29	4.47	3.77	+19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 20 · 24 · 16

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextCut G/PTS toward the low-30s; hold the strong HITS/BLK floor. · Fantasy hockey defenseman analysis

ContextHits role-stable at 3.81/60 (47th pct league-wide) → 4.54 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 5.54/60 and 2nd-half 4.74 vs a 4.47 season rate (3.77 3-yr) (87th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 4.29/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.