Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H241 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3241 GP · 3y
TOI	17.96	18.00	17.82	17.57	18.97
PP TOI	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.11
G	3	3	0	6	4
A	14	12	10	14	16
PTS	17	15	10	20	20
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	58	55	50	60	71
PIM	90	89	117	61	77
Hits	196	202	209	195	213
Blocks	102	103	94	112	107

Sample: 82 GP · 1,260 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

73Rasmus Ristolainen14

74Adam Larsson14

75Lian Bichsel14

76Brenden Dillon13

77Travis Sanheim12

78Hampus Lindholm12

79Connor Murphy12

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 117 pace in the second half after 61 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 10 pace in the second half after 20 in the first, per 82 games.

Bottom of the league

ixG/60

ixG/60 sits in the 2th percentile league-wide (0.09).

Bottom of the league

SOG/60

SOG/60 sits in the 4th percentile league-wide (2.62).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knights94% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Connor CliftonD · Boston Bruins91% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Maveric LamoureuxD · Utah Mammoth88% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadiens87% match
shared: Hits, PIM

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Brenden Dillon is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Sheldon Keefe (NJD)

Last year: Sheldon Keefe full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.96	18.00	18.97	-5%
5v5 TOI	15.47	15.37	15.92	-3%
PP TOI	0.03	0.03	0.11	-77%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.96: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.47: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.03: same coach (Sheldon Keefe) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.51	2.62	3.13	-16%
G/60	0.14	0.14	0.19	-25%
iSH%	5.76	5.34	5.94	-10%
ixG/60	–	0.09	0.13	-29%
iCF/60	–	6.05	8.83	-32%
iSCF/60	–	1.43	2.12	-33%
iHDCF/60	–	0.14	0.28	-50%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 5.3% sits near the 5.9% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.09 (2nd pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 16% (5v5 SOG/60 2.62 vs 3.13) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.08→0.10 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 35 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.54	6.93	8.54	-19%
IPP	33.10	33.33	32.81	+2%
1A/60	0.16	0.19	0.20	-7%
2A/60	0.40	0.29	0.40	-28%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 6.9%, IPP 33.3%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.03	0.03	0.11	-77%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	1.09	0.00	4.36	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.28	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Sheldon Keefe) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	4.29	3.81	3.33	+14%
Hits/60	8.17	8.47	8.79	-4%
Blks/60	3.82	3.86	3.77	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 8.47/60 (81st pct league-wide) → 8.17 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.86/60 (78th pct league-wide) → 3.82 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.19/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.