Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2681 GP	H241 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3244 GP · 3y
TOI	24.06	24.22	22.60	22.95	22.91
PP TOI	0.91	1.11	0.88	1.34	0.92
G	8	11	12	10	8
A	25	26	25	28	24
PTS	33	38	37	38	33
PPP	2	3	0	6	3
SOG	119	96	83	110	133
PIM	33	20	16	24	43
Hits	55	47	43	50	80
Blocks	155	153	145	162	148

Sample: 81 GP · 1,499 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

74Adam Larsson14

75Lian Bichsel14

76Brenden Dillon13

77Travis Sanheim12

78Hampus Lindholm12

79Connor Murphy12

80Simon Nemec11

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 123% above where it started (5.21 in the first half, 11.64 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 65% above last season, 20 to 33.

Second-half fade

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 35% below where it started (1.32 in the first half, 0.86 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 ran 46% below his 3-year rate last season (4.02 against 7.48).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Colton ParaykoD · St. Louis Blues84% match
shared: Blocks
Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers83% match
Justin FaulkD · Detroit Red Wings83% match
shared: Blocks, G
Mike MathesonD · Montreal Canadiens83% match
shared: Blocks, G

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Travis Sanheim is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Rasmus DahlinD · Buffalo Sabrescovers 4
fills: A, PIM, SOG, PPP
Erik KarlssonD · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Tocchet (PHI)

Last year: Rick Tocchet full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	24.06	24.22	22.91	+6%
5v5 TOI	18.60	18.51	18.51	+0%
PP TOI	0.91	1.11	0.92	+20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 24.06: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 18.60: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.91: role tapered late (Q4 0.6 vs 1.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.91	2.96	4.14	-29%
G/60	0.21	0.24	0.29	-18%
iSH%	7.38	8.11	7.07	+15%
ixG/60	–	0.23	0.26	-12%
iCF/60	–	8.08	8.83	-9%
iSCF/60	–	2.76	3.30	-16%
iHDCF/60	–	0.60	0.83	-28%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 8.1% sits near the 7.1% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.23 (25th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 29% (5v5 SOG/60 2.96 vs 4.14) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.27 (1st half) to 0.20 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.52	11.11	7.99	+39%
IPP	39.24	39.71	38.48	+3%
1A/60	0.36	0.40	0.35	+15%
2A/60	0.30	0.44	0.24	+82%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.1% vs a 8.0% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.44 vs 3-yr 0.24) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.91	1.11	0.92	+20%
PP iSH%	7.33	16.67	0.00
PP SOG/60	4.24	4.02	7.48	-46%
PP ixG/60	–	0.68	0.65	+4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 1.1→0.9 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.6 vs 1.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (16.7% vs 0.0% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 0.68) — point-shot D and pass-first QBs regress hardest.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.68	0.64	1.41	-55%
Hits/60	2.08	1.76	2.80	-37%
Blks/60	4.51	4.56	4.42	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.34/60 and 2nd-half 1.56 below the 1.76 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.08/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.80 3-yr mark.

TailwindElite blocks volume (89th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (4.51/60 projected).