Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2679 GP	H239 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3151 GP · 3y
TOI	17.80	17.78	17.36	17.41	17.85
PP TOI	0.06	0.07	0.11	0.02	0.04
G	5	5	5	5	6
A	24	27	28	26	21
PTS	29	32	33	31	27
PPP	0	0	0	0	1
SOG	128	133	152	114	124
PIM	80	95	89	100	85
Hits	179	181	162	199	206
Blocks	102	103	99	107	112

Sample: 79 GP · 1,212 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

40Sean Walker40

41Charle-Edouard D'Astous39

42Simon Edvinsson38

43Josh Manson36

44Jake McCabe36

45Alexander Nikishin32

46Morgan Rielly32

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

SOG

all5v5

Shots ran at a 152 pace in the second half after 114 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 29% below where it started (3.88 in the first half, 2.75 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 25% above his 3-year rate last season (0.64 against 0.51).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Nikita ZadorovD · Boston Bruins89% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Neal PionkD · Winnipeg Jets83% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Charle-Edouard D'AstousD · Tampa Bay Lightning81% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knights81% match
shared: Hits, PIM

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Josh Manson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jared Bednar (COL)

Last year: Jared Bednar full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.80	17.78	17.85	-0%
5v5 TOI	15.21	15.35	15.56	-1%
PP TOI	0.06	0.07	0.04	+84%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.80: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.21: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.06: reverts toward the 3-yr 0.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.83	5.94	5.62	+6%
G/60	0.23	0.20	0.26	-22%
iSH%	3.97	3.37	4.56	-26%
ixG/60	–	0.31	0.23	+35%
iCF/60	–	12.42	13.25	-6%
iSCF/60	–	3.56	3.83	-7%
iHDCF/60	–	0.94	0.82	+15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 3.4% vs 4.6% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.31 (32nd pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 4.0%, lifting the goal rate ~16%.

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.95	10.28	9.05	+14%
IPP	41.15	40.17	43.83	-8%
1A/60	0.56	0.64	0.51	+25%
2A/60	0.51	0.59	0.41	+44%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.3%, IPP 40.2%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.94 vs 0.82) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.59 vs 3-yr 0.41) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.06	0.07	0.04	+84%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP SOG/60	25.92	34.29	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	1.41	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.50	3.86	3.52	+10%
Hits/60	7.29	7.32	8.63	-15%
Blks/60	3.82	3.81	3.98	-4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 6.56/60 and 2nd-half 6.46 below the 7.32 season rate — projected DOWN to 7.29/60, weighting the recent decline over the 8.63 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 3.16/60 and 2nd-half 3.56 below the 3.81 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.82/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.98 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.20/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.