Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2672 GP	H232 GP	H140 GP	Prev 378 GP · 1y
TOI	22.77	22.36	21.30	21.22	21.12
PP TOI	0.24	0.25	0.28	0.23	0.41
G	9	10	13	9	7
A	23	18	15	21	25
PTS	32	29	28	30	32
PPP	0	1	0	2	0
SOG	100	100	93	106	90
PIM	73	86	66	101	70
Hits	102	107	107	107	90
Blocks	169	169	187	154	151

Sample: 72 GP · 1,397 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

39Jeremy Lauzon42

40Sean Walker40

41Charle-Edouard D'Astous39

42Simon Edvinsson38

43Josh Manson36

44Jake McCabe36

45Alexander Nikishin32

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 146% above where it started (4.46 in the first half, 10.98 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 13 pace in the second half after 9 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 28% above last season, 18 to 23.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 35% below his 3-year rate last season (0.30 against 0.46).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Kaiden GuhleD · Montreal Canadiens85% match
shared: PIM, Blocks, Hits
Connor MurphyD · Edmonton Oilers84% match
shared: PIM, Blocks, Hits
Ben ChiarotD · Detroit Red Wings82% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits
Jake McCabeD · Toronto Maple Leafs82% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Simon Edvinsson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Todd McLellan (DET)

Last year: Todd McLellan full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	22.77	22.36	21.12	+6%
5v5 TOI	19.66	19.42	18.26	+6%
PP TOI	0.24	0.25	0.41	-39%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 14 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 22.77: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 19.66: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 0.24: role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.3 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish; age 23 riser — small growth bias

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.40	3.30	3.03	+9%
G/60	0.20	0.21	0.17	+24%
iSH%	5.99	6.36	5.61	+13%
ixG/60	–	0.21	0.17	+24%
iCF/60	–	8.20	8.05	+2%
iSCF/60	–	2.19	2.44	-10%
iHDCF/60	–	0.73	0.29	+152%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 14 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.21 (23rd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.17 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.95	8.89	9.14	-3%
IPP	34.48	32.08	43.53	-26%
1A/60	0.37	0.30	0.46	-35%
2A/60	0.34	0.26	0.38	-32%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 14 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 32.1% sits below the 43.5% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.73 vs 0.29) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.24	0.25	0.41	-39%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP SOG/60	1.31	3.29	7.45	-56%
PP ixG/60	–	0.13	0.59	-78%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 14 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.2 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.39	2.88	2.65	+9%
Hits/60	3.69	3.95	3.29	+20%
Blks/60	4.94	4.98	4.89	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 14 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.95/60 (49th pct league-wide) → 3.69 projected.

TailwindElite blocks volume (92nd pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (4.94/60 projected).

TailwindStrong PIM rate (2.88/60 (80th pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.