Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2678 GP	H238 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3219 GP · 3y
TOI	21.44	21.14	18.98	21.02	22.26
PP TOI	2.27	2.29	2.08	2.48	2.46
G	8	12	13	10	7
A	34	26	11	41	46
PTS	42	38	24	51	52
PPP	13	6	2	10	19
SOG	149	148	140	156	159
PIM	32	31	50	12	26
Hits	47	37	35	38	71
Blocks	124	120	123	117	131

Sample: 78 GP · 1,328 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

43Josh Manson36

44Jake McCabe36

45Alexander Nikishin32

46Morgan Rielly32

47Aaron Ekblad32

48Alexander Romanov31

49Justin Faulk30

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 117% above last season, 6 to 13.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 150% above his 3-year rate last season (9.57 against 3.37).

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 11 pace in the second half after 41 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 24 pace in the second half after 51 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Noah HanifinD · Vegas Golden Knights91% match
shared: SOG
Thomas HarleyD · Dallas Stars87% match
shared: A, PPP, SOG
Thomas ChabotD · Ottawa Senators85% match
shared: A, SOG
Jackson LaCombeD · Anaheim Ducks83% match
shared: A, PPP

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Morgan Rielly is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Donovan SebrangoD · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Tyler TuckerD · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice

Last year: Craig Berube full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	21.44	21.14	22.26	-5%
5v5 TOI	17.09	17.03	18.00	-5%
PP TOI	2.27	2.29	2.46	-7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 21 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 21.44: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.09: role tapered late (Q4 16.1 vs 17.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 2.27: role tapered late (Q4 1.8 vs 2.3 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.56	4.70	5.04	-7%
G/60	0.32	0.45	0.17	+165%
iSH%	6.47	9.57	3.37	+184%
ixG/60	–	0.26	0.22	+18%
iCF/60	–	11.83	10.62	+11%
iSCF/60	–	3.39	3.05	+11%
iHDCF/60	–	0.41	0.62	-34%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 21 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindSet Raddysh ~55 pts with strong PPP; treat Rielly's PP value as downgraded. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.26 (30th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.22 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskAge 32 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.94	10.70	9.30	+15%
IPP	37.93	38.61	36.94	+5%
1A/60	0.36	0.23	0.58	-60%
2A/60	0.34	0.50	0.29	+72%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 21 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.7%, IPP 38.6%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 11.83 vs 10.62) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.50 vs 3-yr 0.29) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.27	2.29	2.46	-7%
PP iSH%	4.60	3.48	5.47	-36%
PP SOG/60	8.85	9.76	6.13	+59%
PP ixG/60	–	0.73	0.64	+14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 21 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindSet Raddysh ~55 pts with strong PPP; treat Rielly's PP value as downgraded. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextPP role steady at ~2.3 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 0.73 vs 0.64) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.51	1.31	0.64	+104%
Hits/60	1.83	1.45	2.65	-45%
Blks/60	4.47	4.38	4.41	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 21 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 1.45/60 (15th pct league-wide) → 1.83 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 5.48/60 and 2nd-half 4.76 vs a 4.38 season rate (4.41 3-yr) (86th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 4.47/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.05/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.