Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2678 GP	H237 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3211 GP · 3y
TOI	20.29	20.60	19.55	19.71	19.83
PP TOI	1.87	1.83	1.92	1.75	1.67
G	6	8	2	14	6
A	30	33	27	37	26
PTS	36	41	30	51	32
PPP	9	9	13	6	7
SOG	115	113	107	119	129
PIM	75	73	75	72	58
Hits	87	90	66	112	105
Blocks	74	76	79	73	75

Sample: 78 GP · 1,365 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

61Sean Durzi22

62Ben Chiarot22

63Victor Hedman21

64Oliver Ekman-Larsson21

65Colton Parayko20

66Maveric Lamoureux19

67Dmitry Orlov18

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 120% above his 3-year rate last season (9.16 against 4.16).

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 69% below where it started (0.50 in the first half, 0.15 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 30 pace in the second half after 51 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 25% below last season, 8 to 6.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Aaron EkbladD · Florida Panthers87% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Charle-Edouard D'AstousD · Tampa Bay Lightning86% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Artyom LevshunovD · Chicago Blackhawks86% match
shared: PIM
Dmitry OrlovD · San Jose Sharks85% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Oliver Ekman-Larsson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Erik KarlssonD · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice

Last year: Craig Berube full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.29	20.60	19.83	+4%
5v5 TOI	17.28	17.50	16.08	+9%
PP TOI	1.87	1.83	1.67	+10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 21 · 16

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.29: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.28: established top role held near 17.5 — the late dip (Q4 16.0) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage
PP TOI → 1.87: new coach (Jim Hiller) — late-year 2.2 role discounted until the new staff sets usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.71	3.82	4.67	-18%
G/60	0.25	0.35	0.19	+80%
iSH%	6.66	9.16	4.16	+120%
ixG/60	–	0.20	0.20	+1%
iCF/60	–	9.49	10.86	-13%
iSCF/60	–	2.68	2.60	+3%
iHDCF/60	–	0.57	0.37	+53%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 21 · 16

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 9.2% vs a 4.2% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.20 (22nd pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 6.7% pulls the goal rate ~28% down.

RiskShot volume down 18% (5v5 SOG/60 3.82 vs 4.67) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 35 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.00	11.97	8.78	+36%
IPP	35.94	35.26	38.28	-8%
1A/60	0.33	0.35	0.33	+4%
2A/60	0.49	0.40	0.46	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 21 · 16

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.0% vs a 8.8% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.57 vs 0.37) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.87	1.83	1.67	+10%
PP iSH%	4.94	0.00	6.50	-100%
PP SOG/60	7.62	7.55	7.85	-4%
PP ixG/60	–	0.44	0.57	-22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 21 · 16

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.9 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.67	2.46	2.55	-3%
Hits/60	3.57	3.60	4.19	-14%
Blks/60	2.71	2.72	2.71	+1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 21 · 16

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 3.74/60 and 2nd-half 2.88 below the 3.60 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.57/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.19 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.72/60 (55th pct league-wide) → 2.71 projected.