Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2668 GP	H228 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3238 GP · 3y
TOI	22.78	22.37	21.31	21.33	24.36
PP TOI	1.61	1.41	1.79	1.14	1.60
G	8	4	6	2	10
A	32	25	26	25	40
PTS	40	29	32	27	50
PPP	4	1	3	0	5
SOG	150	139	138	140	160
PIM	29	39	43	35	24
Hits	43	31	40	26	71
Blocks	93	100	70	121	116

Sample: 68 GP · 1,189 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

99Brayden Pachal6

100Sam Malinski5

101Luke Schenn4

102Devon Toews4

103Drew Doughty4

104Erik Gudbranson4

105Mattias Ekholm4

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 47% above where it started (1.14 in the first half, 1.68 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 63% below his 3-year rate last season (2.20 against 5.88).

We project it up

PTS

all5v5

We’re projecting points 38% above last season, 29 to 40.

We project it up

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 39% above last season, 31 to 43.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Noah HanifinD · Vegas Golden Knights89% match
Morgan RiellyD · Toronto Maple Leafs88% match
shared: A
Owen PowerD · Buffalo Sabres87% match
Gustav ForslingD · Florida Panthers84% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Devon Toews is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Brandon MontourD · Seattle Krakencovers 3
fills: SOG, PIM, Hits
Dougie HamiltonD · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, PIM, Hits
Rasmus DahlinD · Buffalo Sabrescovers 3
fills: PIM, SOG, PPP
Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jared Bednar (COL)

Last year: Jared Bednar full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	22.78	22.37	24.36	-8%
5v5 TOI	17.59	17.49	18.79	-7%
PP TOI	1.61	1.41	1.60	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 9 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 22.78: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.59: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.61: same coach (Jared Bednar) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.7, Q4 2.0) over the full-year 1.4

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.40	4.54	5.26	-14%
G/60	0.13	0.10	0.31	-68%
iSH%	4.04	2.20	5.88	-63%
ixG/60	–	0.30	0.26	+17%
iCF/60	–	10.44	11.49	-9%
iSCF/60	–	3.53	3.25	+9%
iHDCF/60	–	1.16	0.63	+84%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 9 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 2.2% vs 5.9% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.30 (32nd pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 4.0%, lifting the goal rate ~31%.

RiskShot volume down 14% (5v5 SOG/60 4.54 vs 5.26) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 32 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.22	10.51	9.32	+13%
IPP	33.09	29.61	46.26	-36%
1A/60	0.39	0.40	0.40	-1%
2A/60	0.64	0.55	0.70	-21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 9 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 29.6% sits below the 46.3% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 1.16 vs 0.63) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.61	1.41	1.60	-12%
PP iSH%	5.42	7.75	5.42	+43%
PP SOG/60	9.98	8.13	5.82	+40%
PP ixG/60	–	0.36	0.53	-32%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 9 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.4→1.6 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Jared Bednar) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.7, Q4 2.0) over the full-year 1.4) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.23	1.51	0.78	+94%
Hits/60	1.48	1.11	2.36	-53%
Blks/60	2.73	3.13	3.33	-6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 9 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 1.31/60 and 2nd-half 1.60 vs a 1.11 season rate (2.36 3-yr) (10th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.48/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.06/60 and 2nd-half 1.98 below the 3.13 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.73/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.33 3-yr mark.