Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H240 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3222 GP · 3y
TOI	20.50	20.57	19.61	19.74	21.53
PP TOI	0.56	0.51	0.53	0.49	1.04
G	7	6	5	7	11
A	29	35	41	29	30
PTS	36	41	46	36	41
PPP	2	3	2	4	5
SOG	134	131	112	150	168
PIM	27	30	29	31	39
Hits	65	65	51	78	99
Blocks	114	125	124	126	100

Sample: 82 GP · 1,429 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

102Devon Toews4

103Drew Doughty4

104Erik Gudbranson4

105Mattias Ekholm4

106Simon Benoit4

107Louis Crevier3

108Zayne Parekh2

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 51% below his 3-year rate last season (0.51 against 1.04).

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 41 pace in the second half after 29 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 51 pace in the second half after 78 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Justin FaulkD · Detroit Red Wings90% match
shared: SOG, G
K'Andre MillerD · Carolina Hurricanes86% match
shared: A, G
Gustav ForslingD · Florida Panthers86% match
shared: SOG
Thomas ChabotD · Ottawa Senators85% match
shared: A, SOG, G

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Mattias Ekholm is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 2
fills: PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 2
fills: PPP, SOG
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 2
fills: PPP, SOG
Matthew SchaeferD · New York Islanderscovers 2
fills: SOG, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Babcock (EDM) new voice

Last year: Kris Knoblauch full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.50	20.57	21.53	-4%
5v5 TOI	17.20	17.43	17.30	+1%
PP TOI	0.56	0.51	1.04	-51%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.50: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.20: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.56: new coach (Mike Babcock) — late-year 0.6 role discounted until the new staff sets usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.69	4.91	6.11	-20%
G/60	0.22	0.21	0.30	-29%
iSH%	4.67	4.28	4.84	-12%
ixG/60	–	0.27	0.31	-13%
iCF/60	–	11.75	13.20	-11%
iSCF/60	–	3.65	4.09	-11%
iHDCF/60	–	1.09	0.89	+22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 4.3% sits near the 4.8% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.27 (31st pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 20% (5v5 SOG/60 4.91 vs 6.11) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.30 (1st half) to 0.23 (2nd).

RiskAge 36 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.14	10.94	9.22	+19%
IPP	38.85	39.38	37.88	+4%
1A/60	0.50	0.50	0.58	-14%
2A/60	0.48	0.67	0.35	+94%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 10.9% vs a 9.2% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 1.09 vs 0.89) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.67 vs 3-yr 0.35) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.56	0.51	1.04	-51%
PP iSH%	13.58	0.00	17.86	-100%
PP SOG/60	2.32	1.43	7.25	-80%
PP ixG/60	–	0.38	0.69	-45%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.5→0.6 PP TOI/gp (new coach (Mike Babcock) — late-year 0.6 role discounted until the new staff sets usage) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.09	1.26	1.45	-13%
Hits/60	2.53	2.52	3.70	-32%
Blks/60	3.66	3.90	3.31	+18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.78/60 and 2nd-half 1.97 below the 2.52 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.53/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.70 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.90/60 (79th pct league-wide) → 3.66 projected.