Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2637 GP	H233 GP	H14 GP	Prev 3148 GP · 2y
TOI	18.56	17.77	17.72	–	20.44
PP TOI	0.00	0.00	0.00	–	0.05
G	3	2	3	–	4
A	14	4	5	–	18
PTS	17	7	7	–	21
PPP	0	0	0	–	0
SOG	90	75	76	–	107
PIM	61	42	36	–	73
Hits	104	100	98	–	117
Blocks	144	142	153	–	161

Sample: 37 GP · 537 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

101Luke Schenn4

102Devon Toews4

103Drew Doughty4

104Erik Gudbranson4

105Mattias Ekholm4

106Simon Benoit4

107Louis Crevier3

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 45% above last season, 42 to 61.

Bottom of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 1th percentile league-wide (0.00).

Top of the league

Blks/60

Blks/60 sits in the 97th percentile league-wide (5.58).

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 23% below his 3-year rate last season (3.08 against 4.02).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Connor MurphyD · Edmonton Oilers91% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits
Nick SeelerD · Philadelphia Flyers88% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM
Ben ChiarotD · Detroit Red Wings86% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits
Timothy LiljegrenD · Washington Capitals86% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Erik Gudbranson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Bowness (CBJ)

Last year: Dean Evason Q1-Q2 → Rick Bowness Q3-Q4 · hired Jan — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.56	17.77	20.44	-13%
5v5 TOI	15.35	14.52	17.23	-16%
PP TOI	0.00	0.00	0.05	-97%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 0 · 16 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.56: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.35: reverts toward the 3-yr 17.2
PP TOI → 0.00: same coach (Rick Bowness) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.46	3.57	4.09	-13%
G/60	0.12	0.11	0.16	-33%
iSH%	3.55	3.08	4.02	-23%
ixG/60	–	0.12	0.12	-0%
iCF/60	–	9.61	9.67	-1%
iSCF/60	–	1.34	2.00	-33%
iHDCF/60	–	0.22	0.14	+57%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 0 · 16 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 3.1% vs 4.0% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.12 (5th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 3.5%, lifting the goal rate ~12%.

RiskShot volume down 13% (5v5 SOG/60 3.57 vs 4.09) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.68	9.40	7.22	+30%
IPP	21.72	16.04	43.21	-63%
1A/60	0.23	0.22	0.23	-6%
2A/60	0.30	0.00	0.42	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 0 · 16 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 9.4% vs a 7.2% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.22 vs 0.14) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.00	0.00	0.05	-97%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 0 · 16 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Rick Bowness) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.13	1.68	2.89	-42%
Hits/60	4.16	4.24	4.56	-7%
Blks/60	5.33	5.58	4.75	+17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 0 · 16 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 4.24/60 (52nd pct league-wide) → 4.16 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 6.49/60 and 2nd-half 5.96 vs a 5.58 season rate (4.75 3-yr) (97th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 5.33/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.11/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.