Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2650 GP	H223 GP	H127 GP	Prev 3209 GP · 3y
TOI	13.76	13.66	14.22	13.21	15.86
PP TOI	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.04
G	2	2	4	0	2
A	9	10	9	12	12
PTS	11	12	13	12	14
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	69	57	48	63	94
PIM	57	71	46	64	68
Hits	258	244	276	227	322
Blocks	93	94	96	93	104

Sample: 50 GP · 594 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

98Zach Whitecloud6

99Brayden Pachal6

100Sam Malinski5

101Luke Schenn4

102Devon Toews4

103Drew Doughty4

104Erik Gudbranson4

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 9 pace in the second half after 12 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

SOG/60

SOG/60 finished the year 31% below where it started (3.65 in the first half, 2.51 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Bottom of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 2th percentile league-wide (0.00).

Bottom of the league

ixG/60

ixG/60 sits in the 2th percentile league-wide (0.09).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Brenden DillonD · New Jersey Devils92% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knights91% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Connor CliftonD · Boston Bruins89% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Lian BichselD · Dallas Stars88% match
shared: Hits, PIM

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Luke Schenn is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Manny Malhotra (VAN) new voice

Last year (WPG, traded): Lindy Ruff BUF · pre-trade → Scott Arniel WPG · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.76	13.66	15.86	-14%
5v5 TOI	12.10	11.90	14.15	-16%
PP TOI	0.01	0.00	0.04	-89%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 12 · 19 · 4

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.76: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.10: new coach (Manny Malhotra) — late-year 12.6 role discounted until the new staff sets usage
PP TOI → 0.01: new coach (Manny Malhotra) — late-year 0.0 role discounted until the new staff sets usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.00	3.23	4.65	-31%
G/60	0.08	0.10	0.12	-17%
iSH%	2.75	3.10	2.60	+19%
ixG/60	–	0.09	0.17	-49%
iCF/60	–	9.18	11.06	-17%
iSCF/60	–	1.61	2.54	-37%
iHDCF/60	–	0.10	0.45	-78%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 12 · 19 · 4

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 3.1% vs a 2.6% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.09 (2nd pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 2.7% pulls the goal rate ~18% down.

RiskShot volume down 31% (5v5 SOG/60 3.23 vs 4.65) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.12 (1st half) to 0.06 (2nd).

RiskAge 36 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.28	8.61	7.83	+10%
IPP	34.43	41.52	28.96	+43%
1A/60	0.25	0.30	0.28	+6%
2A/60	0.25	0.30	0.25	+22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 12 · 19 · 4

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 41.5% vs 29.0% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.01	0.00	0.04	-89%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 12 · 19 · 4

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (new coach (Manny Malhotra) — late-year 0.0 role discounted until the new staff sets usage) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.30	3.93	3.45	+14%
Hits/60	14.24	14.53	15.68	-7%
Blks/60	4.43	4.34	4.56	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 12 · 19 · 4

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (93rd pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (14.24/60 projected).

TailwindElite blocks volume (86th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (4.43/60 projected).

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.50/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.