Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2672 GP	H239 GP	H133 GP	Prev 3193 GP · 3y
TOI	23.13	23.09	21.44	21.53	25.72
PP TOI	1.72	1.68	1.37	2.05	3.09
G	8	6	5	6	12
A	27	21	18	24	39
PTS	35	26	23	30	50
PPP	8	1	0	2	23
SOG	114	115	112	119	138
PIM	41	45	55	34	42
Hits	▼58	59	75	41	106
Blocks	93	86	71	105	139

Sample: 72 GP · 1,333 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

100Sam Malinski5

101Luke Schenn4

102Devon Toews4

103Drew Doughty4

104Erik Gudbranson4

105Mattias Ekholm4

106Simon Benoit4

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Hits trimmed to 58. His hit rate has fallen every year, 3.3 per 60 down to 1.9, worth 118 per 82 games down to 60. The engine projects 74, a rebound nothing in the pattern supports, because the flat 5% fade it applies past age 32 can't keep up with a decline this steep. At 36 the trend is the better guide. 58 continues it without matching the more aggressive external 49. Blocks are left alone at 93: his 2022-23 blocked-shot row was corrupt in the source data and has now been excluded, which lifted him from 78 on its own.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 75 pace in the second half after 41 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 46% below his 3-year rate last season (1.68 against 3.09).

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 55 pace in the second half after 34 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

PTS

all5v5

We’re projecting points 35% above last season, 26 to 35.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Artyom LevshunovD · Chicago Blackhawks90% match
shared: PPP
Carter YakemchukD · Ottawa Senators89% match
shared: G, PPP
Bowen ByramD · Chicago Blackhawks88% match
shared: G
K'Andre MillerD · Carolina Hurricanes87% match
shared: G

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Drew Doughty is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter Laviolette (LAK) new voice

Last year: Jim Hiller Q1-Q4 · fired Mar → D.J. Smith interim · end Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	23.13	23.09	25.72	-10%
5v5 TOI	18.53	18.53	19.09	-3%
PP TOI	1.72	1.68	3.09	-46%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 14 · 19 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 23.13: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 18.53: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.72: role tapered late (Q4 1.3 vs 1.7 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.40	3.51	3.34	+5%
G/60	0.18	0.18	0.18	+2%
iSH%	5.23	5.13	5.27	-3%
ixG/60	–	0.13	0.15	-11%
iCF/60	–	8.55	7.65	+12%
iSCF/60	–	1.48	2.09	-29%
iHDCF/60	–	0.27	0.34	-21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 14 · 19 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 5.1% sits near the 5.3% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.13 (8th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskAge 36 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.13	8.28	7.87	+5%
IPP	28.83	25.33	36.99	-32%
1A/60	0.26	0.27	0.24	+11%
2A/60	0.35	0.13	0.44	-71%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 14 · 19 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 25.3% sits below the 37.0% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 8.55 vs 7.65) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.72	1.68	3.09	-46%
PP iSH%	6.43	0.00	11.47	-100%
PP SOG/60	8.74	8.43	9.66	-13%
PP ixG/60	–	0.95	0.88	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 14 · 19 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.7 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 11.5%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.43	1.62	1.21	+34%
Hits/60	2.61	2.11	3.37	-37%
Blks/60	2.86	2.74	3.97	-31%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 14 · 19 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.77/60 and 2nd-half 2.48 vs a 2.11 season rate (3.37 3-yr) (26th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.61/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.89/60 and 2nd-half 2.14 below the 2.74 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.86/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.97 3-yr mark.