Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2682 GP	H242 GP	H140 GP	Prev 399 GP · 2y
TOI	17.36	17.62	18.31	15.87	15.55
PP TOI	0.35	0.24	0.37	0.10	0.30
G	8	8	10	6	7
A	▲29	32	26	38	14
PTS	▲37	40	36	44	21
PPP	2	1	0	2	2
SOG	152	164	188	138	121
PIM	19	22	19	24	18
Hits	55	46	46	46	59
Blocks	116	95	102	88	107

Sample: 82 GP · 1,322 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

97Cole Hutson6

98Zach Whitecloud6

99Brayden Pachal6

100Sam Malinski5

101Luke Schenn4

102Devon Toews4

103Drew Doughty4

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Rate lean, not a role bet. Projected 33 against a 40-point per-82 actual and external reads of 37 and 39; the engine's TOI read is already correct (16.57 5v5 matches his rising Q3/Q4 finish), so only the scoring rate moves. Assists 25 -> 28, 36 points. Hedged short of his actual because his 2024-25 rate was genuinely poor.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

ContextValue is deployment/injury-contingent; boost only when Makar is out. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 58% below where it started (1.20 in the first half, 0.50 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

SOG

all5v5

Shots ran at a 188 pace in the second half after 138 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 22% above last season, 95 to 116.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 30% below his 3-year rate last season (1.91 against 2.73).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Owen PowerD · Buffalo Sabres89% match
Noah HanifinD · Vegas Golden Knights84% match
Gustav ForslingD · Florida Panthers83% match
Rasmus RistolainenD · Philadelphia Flyers81% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Sam Malinski is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Rasmus DahlinD · Buffalo Sabrescovers 2
fills: PIM, PPP
Brandon MontourD · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Dougie HamiltonD · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: PPP, PIM, Hits
Vince DunnD · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: PIM, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jared Bednar (COL)

Last year: Jared Bednar full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.36	17.62	15.55	+13%
5v5 TOI	16.57	16.13	14.67	+10%
PP TOI	0.35	0.24	0.30	-19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.36: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 16.57: same coach (Jared Bednar) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 17.2, Q4 17.4) over the full-year 16.1
PP TOI → 0.35: same coach (Jared Bednar) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.4, Q4 0.6) over the full-year 0.2

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.17	7.17	5.83	+23%
G/60	0.33	0.36	0.25	+45%
iSH%	4.64	5.02	4.26	+18%
ixG/60	–	0.25	0.21	+18%
iCF/60	–	18.19	14.05	+29%
iSCF/60	–	4.36	3.68	+18%
iHDCF/60	–	0.36	0.58	-38%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.25 (29th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.21 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 23% (5v5 SOG/60 7.17 vs 5.83) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.20→0.29 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.54	9.61	9.26	+4%
IPP	47.07	51.96	33.84	+54%
1A/60	0.58	0.82	0.25	+234%
2A/60	0.39	0.54	0.37	+45%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 52.0% vs 33.8% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 18.19 vs 14.05) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.35	0.24	0.30	-19%
PP iSH%	28.01	0.00	50.02	-100%
PP SOG/60	1.48	3.03	4.05	-25%
PP ixG/60	–	1.22	0.34	+263%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.2→0.4 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Jared Bednar) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.4, Q4 0.6) over the full-year 0.2) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 50.0%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.77	0.91	0.91	+0%
Hits/60	2.22	1.91	2.73	-30%
Blks/60	4.28	3.86	4.92	-21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 2.76/60 and 2nd-half 1.78 vs a 1.91 season rate (2.73 3-yr) (23rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.22/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.86/60 (78th pct league-wide) → 4.28 projected.