Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2678 GP	H238 GP	H140 GP	Prev 356 GP · 2y
TOI	17.07	17.14	18.65	15.09	16.60
PP TOI	0.07	0.06	0.09	0.04	0.07
G	7	7	10	5	4
A	13	19	22	17	6
PTS	20	26	31	22	10
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	93	120	121	119	67
PIM	34	66	56	76	20
Hits	145	130	131	130	146
Blocks	139	100	128	73	145

Sample: 78 GP · 1,157 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

104Erik Gudbranson4

105Mattias Ekholm4

106Simon Benoit4

107Louis Crevier3

108Zayne Parekh2

109Artem Zub2

110Matt Roy2

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 128 pace in the second half after 73 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 64% below where it started (0.82 in the first half, 0.29 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 73% above his 3-year rate last season (5.55 against 3.21).

Above his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 150% above his 3-year rate last season (3.27 against 0.86).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Nikita ZadorovD · Boston Bruins85% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knights84% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Adam LarssonD · Seattle Kraken84% match
shared: Hits
Josh MansonD · Colorado Avalanche84% match
shared: Hits, PIM

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Louis Crevier is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lindy Ruff (BUF)

Last year (CHI, traded): Jeff Blashill full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.07	17.14	16.60	+3%
5v5 TOI	15.80	14.84	15.02	-1%
PP TOI	0.07	0.06	0.07	-10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 20 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.07: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.80: same coach (Lindy Ruff) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 16.6, Q4 16.4) over the full-year 14.8
PP TOI → 0.07: same coach (Lindy Ruff) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.1

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.55	5.55	3.21	+73%
G/60	0.34	0.31	0.21	+46%
iSH%	6.10	5.59	6.61	-15%
ixG/60	–	0.23	0.09	+146%
iCF/60	–	12.02	7.92	+52%
iSCF/60	–	3.27	1.71	+91%
iHDCF/60	–	0.57	0.14	+303%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 20 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 5.6% vs 6.6% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.23 (25th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 6.1%, lifting the goal rate ~9%.

TailwindShot volume up 73% (5v5 SOG/60 5.55 vs 3.21) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.94	10.24	8.57	+20%
IPP	42.76	45.78	29.01	+58%
1A/60	0.29	0.47	0.07	+573%
2A/60	0.24	0.36	0.21	+68%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 20 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 10.2% (3-yr 8.6%) AND IPP 45.8% (3-yr 29.0%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~5%.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 12.02 vs 7.92) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.57 vs 0.14) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.07	0.06	0.07	-10%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP SOG/60	5.89	12.20	15.32	-20%
PP ixG/60	–	1.30	0.26	+396%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 20 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Lindy Ruff) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.1) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.30 vs 0.26) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.36	3.27	0.86	+282%
Hits/60	5.81	5.49	6.70	-18%
Blks/60	5.07	4.09	6.70	-39%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 20 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 4.26/60 and 2nd-half 4.89 below the 5.49 season rate — projected DOWN to 5.81/60, weighting the recent decline over the 6.70 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 4.26/60 and 2nd-half 4.80 vs a 4.09 season rate (6.70 3-yr) (83rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 5.07/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindStrong PIM rate (3.27/60 (85th pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.