Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2635 GP	H233 GP	H12 GP	Prev 3213 GP · 3y
TOI	15.77	16.51	16.22	–	14.10
PP TOI	0.11	0.12	0.12	–	0.12
G	10	21	19	–	7
A	21	19	20	–	20
PTS	31	40	39	–	27
PPP	0	2	2	–	0
SOG	116	119	123	–	106
PIM	43	51	55	–	38
Hits	117	129	129	–	106
Blocks	50	37	35	–	50

Sample: 35 GP · 495 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

122Nick Paul-10

123Ty Dellandrea-10

124Chandler Stephenson-10

125Teddy Blueger-12

126Sean Couturier-13

127Justin Danforth-14

128Nic Dowd-14

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 130% above his 3-year rate last season (12.58 against 5.47).

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 52% below last season, 21 to 10.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 67% below his 3-year rate last season (0.24 against 0.73).

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 35% above last season, 37 to 50.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings91% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM
Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs90% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Erik HaulaC,LW · Los Angeles Kings89% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM
Jake NeighboursLW,RW · St. Louis Blues89% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Teddy Blueger is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice

Last year (VAN, traded): Adam Foote full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.77	16.51	14.10	+17%
5v5 TOI	13.37	14.15	11.56	+22%
PP TOI	0.11	0.12	0.12	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 0 · 14 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.77: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.37: reverts toward the 3-yr 11.6
PP TOI → 0.11: role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.70	4.85	5.78	-16%
G/60	0.44	0.61	0.32	+93%
iSH%	8.46	12.58	5.47	+130%
ixG/60	–	0.59	0.69	-15%
iCF/60	–	10.18	10.09	+1%
iSCF/60	–	5.33	6.19	-14%
iHDCF/60	–	3.15	3.63	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 0 · 14 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 12.6% vs a 5.5% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.59 (46th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 8.5% pulls the goal rate ~28% down.

RiskShot volume down 16% (5v5 SOG/60 4.85 vs 5.78) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 32 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.85	10.26	7.90	+30%
IPP	66.10	63.04	69.84	-10%
1A/60	0.44	0.24	0.73	-67%
2A/60	0.49	0.61	0.41	+48%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 0 · 14 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 10.3% vs a 7.9% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.61 vs 3-yr 0.41) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.11	0.12	0.12	-1%
PP iSH%	9.53	100.00	0.00
PP SOG/60	15.39	14.88	12.12	+23%
PP ixG/60	–	1.35	3.27	-59%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 0 · 14 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.28	2.67	2.00	+34%
Hits/60	6.10	6.42	6.41	+0%
Blks/60	2.08	1.82	2.39	-24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 0 · 14 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 6.42/60 (71st pct league-wide) → 6.10 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 1.82/60 (26th pct league-wide) → 2.08 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.24/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.