Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2675 GP	H241 GP	H134 GP	Prev 3211 GP · 3y
TOI	14.35	14.54	13.91	14.52	14.62
PP TOI	0.06	0.06	0.08	0.04	0.04
G	10	6	5	6	15
A	13	17	18	16	14
PTS	23	23	23	22	29
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	70	72	62	84	81
PIM	64	80	89	69	50
Hits	137	153	176	125	148
Blocks	61	55	51	58	82

Sample: 75 GP · 892 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

125Teddy Blueger-12

126Sean Couturier-13

127Justin Danforth-14

128Nic Dowd-14

129Danila Yurov-14

130Andrew Copp-14

131Mikael Backlund-15

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 64% below his 3-year rate last season (6.68 against 18.61).

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 176 pace in the second half after 125 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 82% above his 3-year rate last season (4.37 against 2.40).

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 24% below last season, 17 to 13.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Michael McCarronC · Minnesota Wild94% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits
John HaydenC · Seattle Kraken94% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits
Marcus FolignoLW · Minnesota Wild92% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits
Garnet HathawayRW · Florida Panthers91% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Nic Dowd is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Craig (VGK) new voice

Last year (WSH, traded): John Tortorella VGK · pre-trade → Spencer Carbery WSH · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.35	14.54	14.62	-1%
5v5 TOI	11.48	11.89	11.73	+1%
PP TOI	0.06	0.06	0.04	+43%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 15 · 23 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.35: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.48: role tapered late (Q4 10.3 vs 11.9 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.06: new coach (Ryan Craig) — late-year 0.1 role discounted until the new staff sets usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.92	4.04	4.44	-9%
G/60	0.35	0.27	0.83	-67%
iSH%	13.60	6.68	18.61	-64%
ixG/60	–	0.59	0.62	-5%
iCF/60	–	8.34	8.12	+3%
iSCF/60	–	5.99	5.79	+3%
iHDCF/60	–	2.96	3.03	-2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 15 · 23 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 6.7% sits near the 18.6% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.59 (46th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskAge 36 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.15	6.01	9.02	-33%
IPP	69.08	76.60	64.07	+20%
1A/60	0.18	0.07	0.39	-82%
2A/60	0.39	0.74	0.22	+239%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 15 · 23 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 76.6% vs 64.1% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.74 vs 3-yr 0.22) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.06	0.06	0.04	+43%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 15 · 23 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.88	4.37	2.40	+82%
Hits/60	8.47	9.15	8.56	+7%
Blks/60	2.53	2.29	3.18	-28%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 15 · 23 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 9.15/60 (82nd pct league-wide) → 8.47 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.62/60 and 2nd-half 2.05 below the 2.29 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.53/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.18 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.07/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.