Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2679 GP	H236 GP	H143 GP	Prev 3217 GP · 3y
TOI	16.57	16.57	17.11	14.63	16.58
PP TOI	1.36	1.37	1.65	1.13	1.05
G	12	9	6	12	12
A	28	35	35	36	25
PTS	40	45	41	48	37
PPP	6	8	5	11	3
SOG	122	119	118	120	112
PIM	22	25	27	23	22
Hits	39	47	41	52	28
Blocks	62	66	76	59	48

Sample: 79 GP · 1,022 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

127Justin Danforth-14

128Nic Dowd-14

129Danila Yurov-14

130Andrew Copp-14

131Mikael Backlund-15

132Jason Dickinson-15

133Oliver Kapanen-16

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 5 pace in the second half after 11 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 58% above where it started (0.46 in the first half, 0.73 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

ixG/60

ixG/60 ran 59% above his 3-year rate last season (0.87 against 0.55).

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 64% above his 3-year rate last season (2.58 against 1.57).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Matty BeniersC · Seattle Kraken89% match
shared: Blocks
Matvei GridinRW · Calgary Flames84% match
shared: Blocks
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames83% match
shared: Blocks
Connor McMichaelC,LW · St. Louis Blues81% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Andrew Copp is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Todd McLellan (DET)

Last year: Todd McLellan full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.57	16.57	16.58	-0%
5v5 TOI	13.38	12.94	12.84	+1%
PP TOI	1.36	1.37	1.05	+30%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 15

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.57: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.38: same coach (Todd McLellan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 14.0, Q4 14.0) over the full-year 12.9
PP TOI → 1.36: same coach (Todd McLellan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.6, Q4 1.3) over the full-year 1.4

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.99	5.28	4.87	+8%
G/60	0.29	0.23	0.45	-49%
iSH%	6.23	4.36	9.28	-53%
ixG/60	–	0.87	0.55	+59%
iCF/60	–	9.80	8.75	+12%
iSCF/60	–	6.51	5.28	+23%
iHDCF/60	–	4.28	2.50	+71%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 15

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 4.4% vs 9.3% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.87 (84th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 6.2%, lifting the goal rate ~28%.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.96 (1st half) to 0.78 (2nd).

RiskAge 32 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.96	8.72	9.94	-12%
IPP	61.98	62.20	61.14	+2%
1A/60	0.63	0.59	0.67	-12%
2A/60	0.45	0.70	0.37	+90%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 15

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.7%, IPP 62.2%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 9.80 vs 8.75) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.28 vs 2.50) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.70 vs 3-yr 0.37) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.36	1.37	1.05	+30%
PP iSH%	8.60	8.41	8.74	-4%
PP SOG/60	7.29	6.66	6.05	+10%
PP ixG/60	–	2.07	1.48	+40%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 15

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.4 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.07 vs 1.48) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.10	1.17	1.14	+3%
Hits/60	2.07	2.58	1.57	+64%
Blks/60	2.55	2.76	2.03	+36%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 15

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 2.58/60 (32nd pct league-wide) → 2.07 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.14/60 and 2nd-half 3.10 vs a 2.76 season rate (2.03 3-yr) (56th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.55/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.